The Marvel of Modern Meteorology

By -
The flooding continues and, in some places, rivers are still rising.

As long-time readers know, we periodically discuss how far weather science has come and how businesses and other enterprises should use it as they would any other tool (accounting advice, legal advice, etc.). Let's take a look at March 31's flood forecast and compare it to what actually happened. 

The Forecast
Please note the lower map and the forecast of "more than ten inches." The upper map shows where major flooding was forecast. This was before the rains even began! 

The Reality
There is an amazing correlation between the forecast and the reality. 

Below is a map of the current or peak forecast river stages. Purple dots are "major" or "record" flooding. 
Again, an amazing correlation. With the exception of the major flooding on the Meramec River near St. Louis --  which was included in the flood forecast the next day (before the flooding began) -- the forecast is nearly perfect. 

The National Weather Service performed admirably -- last week in spite of the strains of layoffs and other issues -- as did the rest of America's Weather Enterprise. They deserve our appreciation and thanks. 

Comments

  1. AnonymousApril 8, 2025 at 8:55 AM

    This Wednesday evening NWS Hastings is having their storm spotter class in Beloit. I have always been a fan of what the NWS does and have followed your blog for a while on what can be done to get them back to their core mission. I think rather than the doom and gloom from some sources, I think the current turmoil is an opportunity to have a new and improved NWS or Weather Bureau. I see the class as an opportunity to let the NWS employees they are appreciated and that we care about the health of the NWS.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mike SmithApril 8, 2025 at 9:07 AM

      Completely agree.. Thank you for the comment.

      Delete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Overnight Tornado Forecast Posted at 7:05pm

By -
Image
Here is the tornado forecast for the rest of the night (till 6am CST). Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Blown = significant risk of tornadoes.  This will be the last update of the night. Tornado Watch until 2am. Please make sure you have ways of getting warnings of tornadoes and 80 mph winds.  6:15pm  NWS believes the chances for tornadoes and damaging winds are increasing in Mississippi. They also say they are going to extend the tornado watch to the east later this evening.  5:35pm: The northwest part of the tornado watch has been cancelled Here is the area where tornadoes are more likely from 4:30 to 7:30pm. From Atmosphere Analytics Rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch till 9pm If you live in these areas it is vital  to monitor the weather until the watch expires at 9pm  Note the forecast is for "numerous strong tornadoes." A very rare "particularly dangerous situation" ...
Read more