Giant Budget Cut Proposed for NOAA's OAR

The latest news from Washington has the Trump Administration's budget calling for huge cuts in NOAA's research arm, Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research (OAR), by 74%. 

Before going farther, there is no way this will get through Congress and a compromise will be reached. Unfortunately, the usual suspects are overstating the problem. See below:

I intentionally left off the author's names

This is absolutely untrue. Even if OAR were eliminated, it would have zero effect on current forecast and warning accuracy. Zero. It is true the loss of OAR might affect future forecasts but not now. 

In addition to the budget cuts, the National Weather Service's Space Weather Program, which monitors for solar flares and other occurrences that could seriously disrupt life on earth, is proposed to move to Homeland Security (DHS). I have very mixed feelings about this: because a serious electromagnetic pulse (EMP) could take us back to the late 1800's (without late 1800's infrastructure!) with catastrophic results, the move makes theoretical sense. However, DHS has zero experience with this type of agency and will probably starve it of resources, so I prefer it stay with NOAA.

If I woke up tomorrow morning as President of the United States, and was faced with a growing $38 trillion deficit, OAR is one of the places I would look for cuts. 

As Dr. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington's meteorology's department explained last month:

There is little doubt that many Federal agencies have been increasingly ineffective and wasteful of resources. This is certainly true of NOAA, and I have written several papers on this subject and testified in Congress on the issue.  

He goes on to say,

NOAA has fallen WAY behind in critical technologies such as numerical weather prediction and machine learning. Its local forecasts are generally inferior to those provided in the private sector.  Its computer resources are inadequate for its mission.  Its bureaucratic structures are often duplicative and ineffective.  NOAA has often rejected working cooperatively with others, such as the academic community.

I am only warming up on its problems😀.

I am not impressed by what has recently come out of the severe weather laboratories. In December, 2011, at the first Weather Ready Nation meeting in Norman, OK, Dr. John Snow told us that "in five years, we will be 'warning on the forecast'" which meant tornado warning lead-times of up to one hour. They are 9 years late and counting. Besides, the issue is with current tornado warnings with 10-15 minutes of lead-time. Fix those and then we will worry about extending them to one hour. 

Criticizing OAR is treason in parts of the meteorological community but the criticisms are valid.

Federal employment rules makes it extremely difficult to get rid of the deadwood. As President Reagan put it, "The closest thing to eternal life on earth is a government program." 

As "president," I would certainly trade some of the budget cuts for a change in federal employment rules to get OAR in shape. I would also make major cuts in several areas. 

The weather side of OAR is highly nonproductive. It can't go on as is. We can no longer afford it. 

Note: I was already asked what I would keep. The hurricane research group has been highly productive. It should be kept with, additional investments made, if possible. More accurate hurricane forecasts have huge positive impacts on the U.S. economy.