Getting the National Weather Service Back on Track

Today's Realities and the Future of the National Weather Service

On April 2, an ominous, powerful tornado churned through the Arkansas countryside toward the town of Lake City. As it made its way toward the city, storm chasers posted photos and increasingly dire on-the-scene reports. Per ABC News’ chief meteorologist Ginger Zee, the Lake City tornado siren sounded and local TV was warning the residents of the town to take shelter. According to Ginger and Dr. Craig CeeCee, an expert in public sheltering, at least one of the town’s shelters was filled to overflowing. At least one private sector weather company, AccuWeather’s business group, issued an independent tornado warning for the city. 

 

The strong EF-3 tornado came and went, destroying or damaging more than 50 buildings and temporarily making a mockery of the town’s motto: “Peace, Quiet, Home.” But, there was great news: no deaths and no serious injuries. 

 

The only entity Lake City did not officially hear from during the run-up to the storm’s arrival? The National Weather Service (NWS). 

Lake City was not put under an official tornado warning until the storm was on top of the city. The meteorological information is provided after the "St. Louis" footnote, below. 

Yet, in spite of the lack of an official, timely warning, residents were well-aware the storm was coming; evidence being the siren, local news, the people in shelters and lack of deaths. In recent decades, television and private sector meteorologists "backstop" the NWS. This is yet another illustration that the private sector is more than capable of handling extreme weather. The significance of this will be discussed below. 

 

Now that the Supreme Court has reconfirmed (at least for the present) President Trump has authority to fire federal workers (note: I am not commenting on the wisdom of that decision as it regards the NWS), it is time to have a full and candid discussion of the reality of weather science in 2025 and the future of the federal weather agency going forward. 

 

In March, I made these points:

 

What Were the March 5 Suggestions?

• NOAA has lots of fat. Repurpose that money to NWS and give any left over to the Treasury. 

• NWS is a vital national resource but it is increasingly having issues providing accurate and timely forecasts and warnings of extreme weather. 

• Reverse the layoffs. Get the NWS's (far too many) pre-DOGE open positions filled. Find a better way to hire meteorologists. Taking 9 months to fill a position is absurd.

• Establish a "back to the future" school (as the NWS had from ~1991 to 2004) in extreme weather forecasting and warning techniques. It should be of 4 to 6 weeks duration. Every NWS meteorologist that didn’t attend the school referenced above must attend. Addition: The school should include non-model techniques for extreme weather forecasting. 

• Restore all closed upper-air observing stations and, if there are funds, establish limited (2, preferably) additional automatic balloon stations on abandoned Gulf oil platforms and in mainland areas where there are large gaps. These are critical in an era of mesoscale modeling. This has real potential to improve forecast and warning quality. 

• Fund gap-filler inexpensive C-band radars, especially since the replacements for the S-band WSR-88D's are not forecast to be available before 2040, if then. The latter are increasingly unreliable.

• Addition: NOAA has been a weight on the NWS. Congress should make the NWS plus NESDIS, NOAA Labs (with some given a new mission statement) and other federal weather and drought programs into an independent agency like NASA. 

• To insure the above investment provides returns to the taxpayers who fund it and to provide forecast and warning accountability in an era of increasing mega-disasters, establish a U.S. Disaster Review Board modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board. It will study all types of natural disasters and make recommendations for improving our forecast and response abilities.

In today’s National Weather Service’s focus is often not on serving the public through great forecasts and warnings: it is "IDSS" -- off-site and in-person forecasts and briefings to whomever wants them to the extent local resources will allow. This includes everything from the Super Bowl to local school districts. 

"The Making of an IDSS Agency"

NWS meteorologist providing IDSS services off-site from her office. 
NOAA photo. 

In 2017, the NWS changed its mission statement to focus on “impact-based decision support services.” The headline below is from its own public information statement:

IDSS, for example, is when four NWS meteorologists leave their office to provide on-site support services for (true example) a Texas NASCAR race -- during a tornado watch, no less. That is nothing but corporate welfare. Obviously, those four NWS employees were not available to serve the public at a critical time. 

While correlation does not prove causation, the increase in NWS's public service problems, like the drop in NWS tornado warning accuracy, more or less parallels the rise of IDSS [For the record, I also believe the drop also correlates to the retirement of experienced meteorologists who were graduates of the radar/warning school]. For example, a situation in St. Louis* supports the "more IDSS, the worse public warning service becomes" hypothesis. 

While the National Weather Service -- unfortunately -- shut down its school for radar interpretation and severe storm warnings in 2004, they are now in the process of starting a new school to teach their meteorologists how to better perform IDSS services (which, often, are nothing but corporate welfare) away from their offices during high-impact weather events. This takes even more (scarce) resources away from serving the public-at-large. 

As members of the taxpaying public, which do you prefer: the NWS launching weather balloons to improve the accuracy of its forecasts and warnings for everyone or using its scarce resources on corporate welfare? Why not let the very capable private sector handle specialized users' needs?

If, for example, NASCAR, or emergency managers supporting a NASCAR race, need on-site services, that should be done by private sector meteorologists, who usually have more expertise in this field than NWS meteorologists. The IDSS era has been a step backward.

While there are others considering making major changes in the National Weather Service, I believe the presence of the 100+ local offices, fully staffed and focused on serving the public-at-large, is vital to providing the best public service possible. However, the agreement the NWS has with its employees' union, the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO), which forbids the employee's record of forecast/warning accuracy and customer service from being considered when an employee is being considered for a promotion needs to be eliminated. It is contrary to the public interest. 

In many cases the problem was not with the sirens themselves but 
the lack of timely NWS tornado warnings. 

Overwhelmingly, the meteorologists of the National Weather Service wish to do the right thing.

My representative, Sharice Davids, has introduced the WARN Act to learn how to better warn people of tornadoes and other dangerous storms. I endorse this bipartisan proposed legislation. This is an opportunity for DOGE, the Trump Administration, and Congress to repair these problems and move the U.S. National Weather Service back into world leadership. Nothing less will provide optimum service to the public. 

*In 2007, an unforecasted wind storm wreaked havoc on the St. Louis Bi-State area. The local electric utility experienced the worst weather-related outage in its history. Because it was not forecast, the local NWS was caught short-handed. Yet, instead of focusing on catching up to the weather conditions surrounding the storm and adequately warning the public, their office spent precious time calling and briefing the St. Louis Cardinals. Video of conditions at Busch Stadium is here. The irony is that the Cardinals were one of our clients at the time, and we (AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions) had already provided an 80 mph wind warning and were in constant contact. This also reflects the issue with NWS culture that causes many of their people to believe "only we can handle extreme weather" and "we must be all things to all people." That culture is one of the things that has led the NWS astray. 

The Meteorological Data Regarding the Lake City (non-)Warning

The data showed a powerful tornado moving toward Lake City for quite some time. This is 6:40pm radar data showing the tornado was already on top of Lake City the first time that evening the NWS officially warned the city.

Below is the tornado warning that was issued at 6:34pm. Note that Lake City was not mentioned. 

Eight minutes before the tornado struck Lake City, here's what the NWS's radar data showed:

Unquestionably, Lake City should have been put in an official tornado warning by this time -- or preferably -- earlier. Yet, other meteorologists picked up the slack and the people of Lake City knew the tornado was coming.