The flooding continues and, in some places, rivers are still rising. As long-time readers know, we periodically discuss how far weather science has come and how businesses and other enterprises should use it as they would any other tool (accounting advice, legal advice, etc.). Let's take a look at March 31's flood forecast and compare it to what actually happened.  The Forecast Please note the lower map and the forecast of "more than ten inches." The upper map shows where major flooding was forecast. This was before the rains even began!   The Reality There is an amazing correlation between the forecast and the reality.  Below is a map of the current or peak forecast river stages. Purple dots are "major" or "record" flooding.  Again, an amazing correlation. With the exception of the major flooding on the Meramec River near St. Louis --  which was included in the flood forecast the next day (before the flooding began) -- the forecast is nearly perfe...

We have another tornado watch: There is already one tornado warning in effect (10:25am). Please monitor the weather in your area. 

For my dear friends in Wichita. The city manager form of government has held us back too long. 

Today's Sunday fun is brought to us -- as it often is -- by the climate alarmists at Yale  I can't remember the last time I saw a caribou in one of my climatology classes, but I must have just missed her. 

The Weather of April 5, 2025: Tornadoes? Yes, and for the 5th day in a row.  Severe flash flooding? Yes.  Heavy snow in west Texas. Amazingly, yes! Blue = snow, with darker blue corresponding to heavier falling snow. Amber = tornado watches. Green = flash flood warnings. Red = hail or torrential rains. The radar image is from 4:05pm. 

Another day with an enhanced tornado threat. The tornado forecast below was updated at 1:50pm. The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Some good news: After tomorrow, this weather pattern changes and relatively few tornadoes (for the time of year) are expected next week. Dangerous flash flooding The pink area has a high risk  of flash flooding. Statistics show that a disproportionate number of deaths occur in high risk flash flood areas. Please remember the #1 cause of flood fatalities is trying to cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  The red area has an enhanced risk and the yellow area has a significant risk. 

Who'd a thunk it?   California with more tornadoes than Kansas? Kansas has had one tornado so far this year while California has had four. The Great Plains' tornado count is well below average while the Midwest is running higher than average.  I suspect the pattern may begin to favor more tornadoes in the Plains after about April 15th but that is just educated speculation at this point. 

9:45pm tornado watch until 4am. 9pm Reminder: I am posting updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert. Tornado Watch: Small Parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas, 3:50p Please note "strong" tornadoes are forecast. You can find a national list and map of public shelters, here .  3:30pm Radar with Multiple Confirmed Tornadoes and  Corresponding  Warnings in Northeast Texas   The area in orange is the likeliest area for tornadoes between now and 5pm. The longer-term forecast for tornadoes until 7am Saturday. Second Tornado Watch, 3pm. Please monitor trusted sources of information.  I will provide addition updates at Twitter/X @usweatherexpert. 

Another outbreak of strong tornadoes is forecast again Friday afternoon and night. The highest risk is the red area with an enhanced risk in the yellow area. Hatching = strong tornadoes are forecast to occur.  I will update again late this morning. 

I stayed up to get you the latest rainfall amount forecast for the next 48 hours (12:30a Friday).  Yes, that is another 7-9 inches in the amber area from now until 7pm Saturday evening. Catastrophic flooding is forecast by the National Water Center in a band from Ft. Smith and Mena to Louisville.  If you live in an area which has flooded before, it will likely do so with this "historic" (NWS) flood event. It is necessary to be able to leave on short notice if an evacuation is ordered or if you observe rapidly rising water. Keep in mind the 100% cause of flood deaths is driving or walking through a flooded area.  If you are a logistics manager, forget about getting long haul shipments via truck or rail through this region the next few days. 

For the day before, the area in red represents a much higher than usual forecast of strong tornadoes. I'm providing this notice so everyone can prepare accordantly. 

After yesterday's huge tornado outbreak, we have an enhanced risk of tornadoes again today.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. TThe hatched yellow area has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes. This is an all-day threat so please monitor your trusted source of weather information. 

While Tornadoes, Rightly, Were the Primary the Primary Story Today,  Floods Will Be the Story the Remainder of the Week This is forecast by the NWS as a "once in a generation flood in the Lower Ohio Valley. The green tint is the geographic extent of the forecast flooding with this event. The boxes represent the highest stage currently forecast for the major  rivers. Purple is major or record flooding. Red is "moderate" flooding. The brown tint represents flood warnings already in effect. 

6:25pm These are rare and should be seriously considered in your plans into this evening.  3:55pm, a new tornado watch issued.  4:24pm Please get your shelter ready! If you live in a mobile home, you can find your nearest public shelter here . 

Catastrophic flooding is forecast for the pink area of western Kentucky during the next five days.   The red dots are where major flood is forecast to occur on major rivers with river gauges.  The blue is where "considerable" flooding is forecast. 

A tornado outbreak of strong tornadoes is forecast to occur today and tonight.  Hatching is where strong tornadoes are forecast to occur. The purple area has the highest risk. 

2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage.  Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today.  1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night.  11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas.  This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about.  I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....

Wednesday is going to be another day with the potential for destructive tornadoes.  You can find suggestions for your home tornado shelter and insuring that you receive warnings during the night,  here .  If you live in a mobile home and don't have a shelter at your mobile home park, you can find a map and list of public shelter s   here .  On my 4-point scale, here is the color code: Red, hatched = high  risk of strong tornadoes.  Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes.  Brown = significant risk of tornadoes.  Of course, I will update this forecast tomorrow morning. As far as timing is concerned, here is a general idea.

Late season snow forecast for the Upper Midwest. A foot of snow may fall in southeastern North Dakota. 

Once in a Generation Flooding Expected! The purple area over western Kentucky and adjacent areas is where catastrophic flooding is forecast to occur. The blue area is where major flooding is forecast. This forecast is valid from tomorrow until April 6.  The red dots represent river gages that are forecast to measure "above flood stage" conditions. Orange is minor flooding.  The #1 cause of fatalities in flooding is driving or walking into a flooded area! If you live in an area where flooding as occurred at one time or another in the past, remember:  Create a "go kit," that would include family heirlooms and other valuables, clothing for 3-4 days, medical needs (medicines, etc.). Make sure your car is completely fueled. Get some extra cash from the ATM. Keep your phone and laptop charged. 

Here's an updated tornado forecast made at 12:45am Tuesday. There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes in the yellow, hatched area.  There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area. Any thunderstorms in the brown area, and especially, the yellow area have the risk of large hail. I'll cover that in an update later today.  Immediately below is a posting about tornado preparations since this is the first tornado situation of the year in Kansas.