Another Dangerous Tornado Day! -- Updated 1:45a Saturday

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I have been in the forecast chair continuously since 8:30a Friday. I'm going to be now because Saturday will be an extremely dangerous tornado day. 

There is an extreme risk of strong tornadoes in the purple area and a high risk of strong tornadoes in the red area from 7a Saturday to 8a Sunday. 

Newest Tornado Watch: 1:45am



Tornado Watch: 1:35am


8:06pm
Overnight tornado watch until 3am. 

8pm: Particularly Dangerous Situation!
Rare "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch issued for the overnight hours. Make sure yo have a way to be awakened if you receive a tornado warning. 


7pm:

5pm: Meanwhile, father south, a tornado watch will likely be issued. This is where overnight tornadoes are a real danger in Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and Mississippi. 


4:55pm, tornado watch updated. 
Please note what is forecast to occur: "Several strong tornadoes, 90 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts, and hail to tennis ball size." I expect tornadoes after about 6:30pm. Things to do now:
  • Put your car in the garage. 
  • Bring in trampoline, law furniture and other items that can be blown about. 
  • Charge your laptop and smartphone but unplug them when you first hear thunder. 
  • Listen to trusted local weather sources for additional weather information and warnings. 
4:55pm: I have updated the tornado watch. Between the two lines is where I believe the higher risk of tornadoes will exist from 6:30 until 10pm. This includes St. Louis, Rolla, Jeff City and the Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri and Belleville and Granite City in Illinois. 

3:47pm, with pressures falling very rapidly and destabilization taking place, I believe the outlined area will need a tornado watch by 6:30pm.
As the evening progresses, I urge people in the St. Louis BiState Region to keep a very close eye on the weather, especially after sunset. 

3:30pm 

Note: tornadoes, winds to 90 mph and large hail are forecast by the NWSfrom now until 7pm. 


--- The complete forecasts from now until Sunday morning are below ---
This is the type of situation meteorologists dread. Strong tornadoes are likely, including some after 10pm. Research shows that tornadoes at night are 2.5 times more deadly than during the day. 

On Saturday and Saturday Evening, there is a rare extreme risk of tornadoes. 

Until 7am Saturday
The color code:
  • Red hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Yellow hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Brown = significant risk of tornadoes. 
The forecast was updated again as of 3pm due to the increasing threat of overnight tornadoes in the South. The "red" (high risk on my scale) area has been extended south, see map immediately below..

North of I-44 in Missouri and north of I-64 in Illinois: tornadoes becoming likely this evening and into the overnight hours. 

South of I-44 in Missouri and south of I-64 in Illinois: tornadoes quite likely after 7pm. In this area, tornadoes may continue after midnight -- making the danger especially high. 
While an isolated tornado or two are possible are possible near and south of I-40 in the early evening, the better chance is after 8pm through the overnight hours. It is vital that that you have multiple ways of being awakened for a tornado warning. Please see recommendations below. 

Damaging Thunderstorm Wind Forecast
Above is the forecast for damaging winds. Color code:
  • Purple = high risk of thunderstorm-generated winds of 75 mph or stronger.
  • Red = enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. 
  • Yellow hatched = significant risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. 
  • Yellow = significant risk of 60 mph or stronger.
Power failures, toppled trees, and blocked roads are all likely with this major thunderstorm wind event.  Nearly 500,000 people, as of 3:15pm, are without power in Texas and Oklahoma due to these winds. 

Saturday 7am to Sunday 8am
Above is the tornado forecast. Color code:
  • Purple, hatched: There is an extreme risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Red, hatched: There is a high risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Yellow, hatched: There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Brown: Significant risk of tornadoes. 
If you live in the red or purple areas above, it is vital you plan for a tornado outbreak. Please review the recommendations below and take them to heart. If you have tornadoes or severe thunderstorms in the morning, there will still be a chance of tornadoes again in the afternoon. 


If you live in a mobile home, be prepared to go to a friend or relative's conventional home or a public shelter. You will find detailed information on public shelters here. 

I also highly recommend the StormWarn telephone call warnings. You are called only if you are in a tornado warning or warning for 80 mph or stronger winds at your location. 

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