Seasonal Weather Outlooks are NOT Accurate

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Yesterday, with great fanfare, the media brought the NOAA spring weather outlooks to everyone's attention. One place you didn't find them? Here. 

While long range weather outlooks generate lots of "clicks," I refuse to post them not only because their skill is -- at best -- inconsistent; but because they are often terribly wrong. This blog is about forecasting what is the best weather science can produce. 

Let's look at the forecast for this past winter and what actually happened.

Look at the very top: the "skill" of the forecasts is negative. Meaning, overall, you would have been better off with a forecast the opposite of what was forecast. 

Two years ago, these same long range forecast product called for drier than normal conditions in California when they actually had one of the wettest winters in their history!

I have not been able to find any seasonal forecaster with consistent skill. So, that is why I don't post them. 

If the NWS is looking for areas to cut, this makes much more sense that cutting weather balloon launches. This part of their mission could, and probably should, be privatized. 

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