Let's Get Serious About the National Weather Service
Right now, the NWS and America's private-sector meteorologists are dealing with a major storm. Please scroll down for more info. But, I'm taking time out of my storm coverage because of this vital issue.
Wish I was in Vegas so I could make a bet: it won't happen -- just like 500 "forecasters" were not laid off Friday in spite of what many news organizations would have you believe. Nevertheless, the layoffs were unfortunate and not well planned. Other cuts, discussed here, should not happen.
Let's get serious: The NWS is an essential federal service. Not to mention the thousands of lives it saves, scientific studies have shown that it returns $10 to the economy for every dollar of its budget (the American Meteorological Society explains, here). It has virtually zero fat. NOAA, on the other hand, has quite a bit of fat. That should be cut with part going to fix the serious under-resourced situation at the NWS and part back to the Treasury.
As Dr. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington's meteorology's department puts it:
There is little doubt that many Federal agencies have been increasingly ineffective and wasteful of resources. This is certainly true of NOAA, and I have written several papers on this subject and testified in Congress on the issue.
He goes on to say,
NOAA has fallen WAY behind in critical technologies such as numerical weather prediction and machine learning. Its local forecasts are generally inferior to those provided in the private sector. Its computer resources are inadequate for its mission. Its bureaucratic structures are often duplicative and ineffective. NOAA has often rejected working cooperatively with others, such as the academic community.
I am only warming up on its problems😀.
To quote Cliff again,
Like an expert tree surgeon, the administration needs a deep understanding of the entity it wishes to improve before taking action.
Unfortunately, the current administration has not done this, deciding to simply cut the recent growth (new employees) irrespective of whether their roles are important or critical.
While it is an essential service, the NWS is a troubled agency whose forecasts and warnings are deteriorating in quality. In the necessary cutting of federal agencies (we have a $38 trillion deficit which will sink the nation unless it is dealt with!), it is essential that Congress spends a few dollars creating for America a National Disaster Review Board modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).
Think about the recent Washington airline disaster, the Toronto crash and several recent incidents. America's people and officials have confidence we will fix the problems because of the outstanding record of the NTSB (Canada's TSB also does great work). We don't know what we would do without it.
Consider the poorly handled mega-disasters of the past few years...
- Maui Wildfire, 101 dead
- Poorly handled Hurricane Ian, 120 dead
- Poorly handled Appalachian flooding due to Helene (140+ dead), I-40 just reopened Saturday!
- Poorly handled Los Angeles wildfires in January (29 dead)
- Dozens of poorly warned tornadoes up to EF-3 intensity, some fatal; downward trend in accuracy
I can cite many more, this should give you an idea. It is not just the NWS! The NWS did an outstanding job with the Maui and Los Angeles wildfire forecasts; it was emergency management that dropped the ball. The NWS did a great job with Helene's landfall location and rapid intensification but the same cannot be said for the catastrophic flooding.
Who will investigate? Who will determine fixes? How will any fixes be implemented, especially since there are distinct issues at the federal, state and local levels in weather, emergency management, hydrology, communications and many other areas of expertise.
We will not be able to fix these issues without a process -- and, a National Disaster Review Board is absolutely necessary for that process to be created.
Because we cannot wait for the NDRB to act, I offer researched suggestions as to how to repair the National Weather Service, here. We need to start by hiring most of the people back and stop any silly attempt (at this time) to cancel leases.
Simultaneously, Congress must act on these issues. Hearings should be held at the earliest possible time and bills introduced in both Houses of Congress.
The recent House Budget Resolution shows the any savings from all the cutting with go to tax cuts for the rich and we will still have trillions in deficits. Watch what they do, not what they say.
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