I would also add to the list subscribing to StormWarn and putting a quality weather app on your smartphone. I like AccuWeather's a lot -- it gets the tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings to me faster than any other method (ties with StormWarn). They have it for Apple and Android.  Also, in your shelter stock: A couple of bottles of water.  Diapers, if appropriate. Shoes, but not flip-flops. If the worst should happen, you do not want to be walking through the debris field barefoot or in poor shoes. Old sneakers should work.  My current, preliminary. forecast is the posting immediately below.  However, late information and model forecasts indicate tomorrow may be a big tornado day in Kansas and, possibly, Oklahoma and far  north Texas. I do not expect any tornadoes before 4pm, if that is helpful.

First Significant Tornado Risk of the Season for the Central Great Plains Because the first tornado forecast of 2025 for the central Great Plains includes an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes, I want to bring it to your attention.  Recall: the yellow, hatched area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk.  Focusing in on the higher risk area: It includes Wichita as well as area from about Medicine Lodge to Ottawa.  The severe thunderstorms in Kansas and western Oklahoma probably will not begin before about 4pm. Mid-afternoon would probably be a good time to begin monitoring the weather. Storms will continue after dark.  Reminder: if you haven't prepared your sheltering area for 2025, today would a good time to do it.  In Kansas and Oklahoma, by law, most mobile home parks of any size have shelters. However, if you don't have ready access to a shelter, today would be a good time to review this list and map of public she...

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes but the geographic size of the tornado forecast hs been cut back considerably. Please keep up on the latest weather information as the day progresses.

Here is the national flood forecast for the next seven days.  "Considerable" flooding means it will be geographically widespread over the next seven days. The hatching means seven days and the colors mean the extent of the forecast flooding.  Rainfall amounts will be more than ten inches in the yellow area. This is in addition to the rainfall the past 24 hours. 

7:40pm CDT This is where the highest chance of tornadoes exists the rest of the evening until 1am CST. Note: This ends my coverage for the evening. Thank you for reading.  5:55pm CDT Watch is in effect until 1am EDT. Note that "strong" tornadoes are forecast to occur.  2:40pm This is the area about which I am most concerned when it comes to tornadoes, especially from southern Illinois to Arkansas.  Reminder: I provide additional coverage on Twsitter/X @usweatherexpert .  1:20pm Tornado Watch, Includes Chicago 12:10pm - Tornado Watch This is the first tornado watch of the day. Note also that hail to 2" and 70 mph wind gusts are forecast to occur.  Now is the time to make sure, if you live in a mobile or manufactured home, to know where the nearest public shelter is  located. You will find a national list and map here .  Tornado Risk The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. ...

No, I am not linking to the article. It is too ridiculous. 

Meanwhile, physics is " racist ."

7:55pm A tornado watch is now in effect until 1am. Please note that tennis ball-sized hail and 80 mph thunderstorm-generated gusts are forecast.  3:20pm Kansas:  As of 3:10pm, a line of tower cumulus clouds is growing along the dry line in Kansas. I expect thunderstorms to form along the dry line by around 5pm (give or take). These storms may produce large hail this evening near and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.  Later tonight, a cluster of storms with damaging winds is likely from SE Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri. You may wish to bring in trampolines and outdoor furniture that could blow about.  Oklahoma:  No tower cumulus yet but when/if thunderstorms develop, they will grow very quickly and could become quite severe.  --- original posting (still valid) --- The NWS Storm Prediction Center has added a significant chance of tornadoes in a part of Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.  As Norman and Stillwater, as well as OKC and Tulsa, are inclu...

The maroon is ice storm warnings. Power failures are possible. Pink = winter storm warnings. Blue is winter weather advisories. 

Saturday's forecast has been updated . Sunday's is still valid.  Sunday may be an active day for tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail.  Here are the forecasts: Saturday This is the hail forecast (the likelihood of tornadoes, while not zero, is low). There is a significant risk of hail 1" or larger in the yellow area. In the hatched area, the hail may be larger than 2". The latter area includes Wichita, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Norman, Enid and Arkansas City.  Sunday The hatched yellow area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes throughout. I would especially be concerned about the area from Jonesboro to Cape Girardeau, Paducah, Carbondale and Evansville based on recent data.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Now is the time to make sure your tornado safety area is ready to go. If you reside in the manufactured or mobile home, and your area does not have a shelter, there is a map/list of community shelters here . 

The orange area is where five or more inches of rain are forecast to fall from Indiana to Mississippi. There is a second area of heavy rains (snow levels will not be as high as with earlier storms) in the West.  Please keep an eye on weather in these areas the next few days. 

While it is too soon to get specific in this particular situation, there is a possibility of severe thunderstorms in the central Great Plains Saturday, the Midwest and Mid-South Sunday and the Middle Atlantic and Southeast regions on Monday.  It is too soon to be more specific than that. However, if you live mobile or manufactured home in these regions, it may be time to look up the nearest public shelter in your area. You can find a national map and listing of public shelters here .  I will begin providing forecasts tomorrow (Saturday). 

Today is the first of a five-day period (up to and including Monday) with the potential for tornadoes and/or severe thunderstorms. 

Finally got to view the documentary about the 2011 Joplin Tornado yesterday. The human nature of the video was very well done and I enjoyed it. The weather science aspects? Not so much.  The people of Joplin did not know the giant tornado was headed for the center of their city because of mistakes made by the National Weather Service (NWS) and local emergency management which was in charge of siren activation. This not discussed in the documentary. In fact, the people of Joplin are depicted as foolish for ignoring the sirens. The reason the sirens were ignored was because radio and TV told the populace the tornado was going to move to the north of the city (see below).  The documentary begins with far too much time spent on some silly forecast of the Biblical rapture for May 21, 2011, the day before the tornado. I had never heard of this forecast and I doubt many people care about it today. If you can fast forward through this, the program will likely be more enjoyable for yo...

Note: This forecast was a total bust as Dr. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington Department of Meteorology explains .  -- original posting -- -- original posting -- Tornado Safety Recommendations  The best place is the basement of your home under heavy furniture (such as a pool table).  If you do not have a basement, go to the lowest floor of your home and get into a closet or bathroom in the middle of the house. The idea is to put as many walls a possible between you and the storm.  If you live in a mobile home, find other shelter such as at a friend or relative's house. Please monitor the weather throughout the day.  This is the hail forecast. The hatched yellow area has a significant risk of hail 2" or larger in diameter. The yellow area has a significant risk of hail 1" or larger. Safety recommendations: Put your car in the garage or under a carport. Bring in law furniture or other items that could be damaged by hail. Stay in during a thunderstorm as h...

The image of a tennis player says it all.

NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a significant chance of hail 2" or larger in diameter in the hatched area Wednesday afternoon or evening.  As hail of this size is unusual in the Northwest, here are some safety suggestions: At the first sign of a thunderstorm, such as thunder, bring in the kids. Large hail can cause injuries.  Put your car in the garage when it is not in use.  Put indoors lawn furniture and other items that could be damaged. I'lll update tomorrow. 

Wow, if true . I'm not convinced.  That stipulated: We've discussed FEMA many times. The agency is a money-spewing political and management mess that does very little to help people affected by natural disasters unless they are located in the correct "blue" areas. My opinion is that FEMA's staff, mission and budget should be slashed. The agency should become a disaster logistics and federal grant coordinating agency -- only. I discuss the matter on Full Measure   here .  The Hill It is possible President Trump and Secretary Noem have concluded the current FEMA is beyond hope.  My #2 choice is the complete elimination of FEMA, followed soon by a new agency based on the above staffed with fresh people and a new mandate. 

Tornado sirens, tornado shelters, wildfires, rural America, tornado damage, aviation navigation, agriculture, and photographs of a wide variety of other subjects are all available in my collection.  You will find my collection of weather and nature-related photographs, ready for licensing , here .  I hope you will take a look. 

Here are some thoughts to start the week.... Netflix Joplin Documentary. We don't have NETFLIX and I have not had a chance to see the documentary on the Joplin Tornado. Based on descriptions provided by friends, there appears to be at least one major error of fact in the program, so don't believe everything you watch. If you want to read what really happened -- and what went so horribly wrong -- I wrote a book on that horrible storm.  The paper copies of the book sold out very quickly. We decided to price the ebook very inexpensively so many could read it. You will find the   When the Sirens Were Silent  here and the Amazon Cloud Reader (free, top of page) so you can read it in the same page layout as if you were reading the paper book. The cost is just $2.99. When/if I watch the documentary, I will write a review.  National Disaster Review Board. Of the comments on the piece at Roger's blog , I was surprised by the number of people who didn't understand what the N...

A tornado watch has been issued for the area outlined in red until 11pm. Thunderstorms are developing west of Memphis. If you live in or near this area, please keep up on the latest weather information! I will provide updates on Twitter/X  at @usweatherexpert. --- original posting ---  The area in brown has a significant risk of a few tornadoes. Please keep up on the weather in these areas later today. 

Photo taken outside of Neodesha The City of Neodesha, in southeast Kansas, is paying people -- generously -- who want to move there. An overview: Up to $15,000 student loan repayment. 100% Kansas income tax waiver through 2026. College scholarship incentive up to $25,000. One year pass to Neodesha Splash Zone.  Six month subscription to local newspaper.  USD 461 school activities pass.  Two tickets to Neodesha Chamber of Commerce's annual auction and dinner.  The Wichita Eagle  has a story here .  Neodesha  (pronounced nee-oh-duh-shay, if you’re not familiar) provides details    here .  Kathleen and I love living in Kansas and Neodesha is in a particularly pretty area. If you are interested in a change, I recommend checking this out. 

Yesterday, with great fanfare, the media brought the NOAA spring weather outlooks to everyone's attention. One place you didn't find them? Here.  While long range weather outlooks generate lots  of "clicks," I refuse to post them not only because their skill is -- at best -- inconsistent; but because they are often terribly wrong. This blog is about forecasting what is the best weather science can produce.  Let's look at the forecast for this past winter and what actually happened. Look at the very top: the "skill" of the forecasts is negative. Meaning, overall, you would have been better off with a forecast the opposite  of what was forecast.  Two years ago, these same long range forecast product called for drier than normal conditions in California when they actually had one of the wettest winters in their history! I have not been able to find any seasonal forecaster with consistent skill. So, that is why I don't post them.  If the NWS is looking f...

In another round of what I believe is "malicious compliance," the National Weather Service (NWS) is going to further cut back the vital weather balloon network. And, I'm told, more balloon cuts are on the way.  The NWS was -- unnecessarily -- cutting the network before President Trump was sworn in (circles). Now, they cutting more of the network back to, evidently, generate more media outrage and put more pressure on the Trump Administration. I say that because, according my sources (and I have several), not all of these offices have lost people compared to 30 days ago. They are creating a pressure campaign as we are going into the meat of tornado season and hurricane season is immediately thereafter.  Denver and Chatham (MA) have stopped launching balloons completely, the latter station has closed completely. The station in Alaska is now one per day as are all of the X's, effective immediately.  A Dangerous Game!    Russia has cut its network back to once per d...

Things have calmed down in terms of major storms. While the rain in the Northwest is unneeded, the rain elsewhere is generally beneficial. Unfortunately, more rain is needed in the central Great Plains into the Southwest but it looks dry for at least the next seven days. 

Second Tornado Watch First Tornado Watch Tornado watch in effect for "a couple of strong tornadoes" from now until 7pm CDT. It includes the south part of Chicagoland, the Quad Cities and western Indiana. Please monitor the weather the rest of the day! I am providing real-time updated information on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  --- Tornado Forecast Until 7am CDT --- The yellow, hatched area has an  enhanced risk of strong tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area, which includes Chicago and the Quad Cities, has a significant risk of tornadoes. With the 11:10 update, Ft. Madison and Dubuque have been added to the brown area. In the meantime, please make sure your shelter area is cleaned out and read to go with a couple of bottles of water, shoes (if your home is hit you don't want to walk barefoot on debris), and diapers if appropriate.  If you live in a mobile home, it is important to find other shelter. If you do not have friends or family in a nearby conventiona...

A number of counties in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas have been removed from the blizzard warning as the storm is moving northeast.  The color code: Orange = blizzard warning Gold = high wind warning Maroon = red flag warning (wildfire conditions) Pink = winter storm warning  Dark blue = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Brown = high wind watch More than an estimated half million people are without power.  Below is the radar at 4:38p. Blue is the snow falling with the blizzard with the darker blues corresponding to a higher rate of falling snow. Amber is the NWS's tornado watches.