Tizzy at NOAA!!

Various congresspeople are burning up Twitter/X this afternoon because Elon Musk's team has visited NOAA. Some are even worried NOAA will be broken up. One of many:

Evidently, Representative Huffman (D-Maryland) is not aware that breaking up NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is one of the best things that could happen to America and the people relying on the National Weather Service (NWS).

Increasingly, the National Weather Service is failing in its mission. Here is a smattering of the evidence:

·      Compared to others, the National Weather Service missed the threat of “catastrophic” flooding in the southern Appalachians as a result of Hurricane Helene by a full day.

·      The accuracy of tornado warnings since 2010 has regressed to 1994 levels when measured by the probability of detection (PoD) and lead-time (LT). It is now almost routine that tornadoes up to EF-3 intensity are unwarned, sometimes resulting in fatalities. 

·      In 2020, when Congress was interested in funding gap-filler radars (I assisted the House committee at the time), the NWS said they were not needed (please see: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/21/radar-gaps-weather-service/ ). 

·      The NWS is in the middle of a five-year study merely to determine with what type of radar they wish to replace the now 30-year old WSR-88D’s. Its time-line doesn’t have the new radars in the field until approximately 2040. 

·      Three NWS rawinsonde launching points are inactive for an indefinite period of time. 

·      Communications failures are frequent. 

·      A number of field offices cannot get to full staff. For example, the Goodland, Kansas, office is down by six meteorologists. This past summer, that office issued a flash flood warning for heavily traveled Interstate 70 that was completely inaccurate because the torrential rains that fell just north of the highway do not flow toward the interstate but toward the north (Platte River Basin) away from I-70. It didn’t even rain on the highway.

·      Finally, NOAA’s billion-dollar disasters product is lacking scientifically. It has been described as “an egregious failure of scientific integrity.” Please see: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/an-egregious-failure-of-scientific?utm_source=publication-search

Finally, the NWS has dropped to -- at best 3rd -- in the international race for making the best quality computer model forecast. This cannot be allowed to continue. 

Two things need to happen:

The NWS should be split off from NOAA. Complete details are here with the answers to questions, here.

As mega-disasters seemingly skyrocket, the United States desperately needs a National Disaster Review Board modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board. As explained at the blue link, the Board would investigate disasters and publish best practices so as to mitigate the crippling effects of future disasters and minimize the loss of lives from the same.

I urge Congress to be open-minded and consider ways of achieving the best possible public sector weather forecasts and storm warnings.