Texas and Oklahoma: Late Week Winter Storm

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Texas: we don't want a repeat of the catastrophic Valentine's Weekend Winter Storm and Cold Wave that took hundreds of lives.
So, I am starting my forecasts for this storm a bit earlier than usual in hopes of alerting everyone so they can take protective measures in sufficient time to mitigate the risks of cold, ice and snow. 

Overview

Above is the probability of 4" or more snow and/or a quarter inch of freezing rain or sleet. This product (NWS) did well in the early states of the forecasts for the weekend blizzard and ice storm that is now moving out into the Atlantic. 

ERCOT, which runs Texas' electric grid is alerting people to the impending storm and "higher electrical demand and the potential for lower reserves."

How would I prepare at this point?
  • Have the fireplace ready to go. If your chimney has not been inspected this winter, it is a good time to do so. Make sure you have plenty of firewood. 
  • Get some extra cash, if possible. ATM's do not work for long after a power failure. 
  • Keep your car fully fueled. Filling stations/chargers will not work during a power outage. Plus, the additional gasoline yields slightly better traction on snowy or icy road. 
  • Make sure you have a snow scraper for your car. Wear gloves.
  • If you have a generator, test it now. If you use a portable generator, make sure it is filled with fuel and remember never to use it indoors (a in Austin told me about a family down the street from her that died after putting a portable generator inside during the 2021 event. Their home caught fire; plus there is the carbon monoxide threat). The portable generator, even if outdoors, should be at least 30' from air intakes into your home. Never put a bar-b-que grill indoors, either!
  • If you have a chain saw, test it and fill it with fuel. 
  • I suspect the run on HEB's and other grocery stores has already begun. Regardless, stocking up sooner rather than later is a good idea.
Preliminary Weather Forecasts
4pm Thursday forecast weather snapshot
Blue is snow with darker blues meaning heavier rates of falling snow. Purple and orange are sleet and freezing rain. Green is rain with the yellow/red meaning thunderstorm. 

4am Friday forecast weather snapshot

4pm Friday forecast weather snapshot
Please note the times are very preliminary at this point.

It is too soon to forecast specific amounts of snow, freezing rain and sleet. The good news is that this airmass is not as cold as the airmass that covered the south central USA during Valentines Weekend 2021. 

Tomorrow, I will provide forecasts of specific amounts of precipitation. 

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