Major Winter Storm Starting This Weekend

By -
There is an update pertaining to the ice storm here. 



Let's begin with an overview:
Dark turquoise is a winter storm watch for heavy snow or ice. The purple areas from Iowa to the east are for today's snow. The purple area in Kansas is for freezing rain or drizzle starting Saturday. 


Here are snapshots of the forecast storm at various points in time. 

Noon Saturday

6am Sunday

6pm Sunday


8am Monday

Blue is snow with darker shades of blue corresponding to heavier rates of falling snow. Orange is sleet. Pink and purple are freezing rain with purple indicating a high rate of freezing rain. 

Green is rain and yellow/red is thunderstorms. 

Accumulation Forecasts

Snowfall to 6am Monday
With the warm weather of late and the ground being warm (for January), it is uncertain how much of this snow will actually accumulate. Nevertheless, this will be a heavy snow ( ≥ 4") in many areas. It is fair to say that the heavier snow will probably be along and to the north of Interstate 70 as far east as the Illinois-Indiana border. 

It is too soon to make a specific storm total snowfall forecast east of Illinois but it is likely to be at least moderate.

Freezing Rain to 6am Monday
A significant ice storm is likely, especially from eastern Kansas to the Ozarks with amounts in the 1/4" to 1/2" range.  There is the potential for power outages and travel will be, at best, extremely difficult. 

Of course, I will continue to provide updates. Thanks for reading. 

Comments

  1. AnonymousJanuary 2, 2025 at 7:27 PM

    I know it is still a little early, but is Wichita and El Dorado in a potential area of serious concern? As a teacher, I worry about school starting back up on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJanuary 2, 2025 at 7:30 PM

      Mike Smith here: Wichita and El Dorado will primarily receive freezing rain followed by some snow. I suspect school will be held Monday but remember: a snowplow or sand truck are non-meteorological events.

      Delete
    2. Mike SmithJanuary 3, 2025 at 9:27 AM

      Dear Readers: I received two emails around 1am asking for specific forecasts for Iowas City. As you can imagine, I was sleeping at that time. I am happy to make occasional specific forecasts, as time allows. But I cannot make any guarantees as to my availability.

      Delete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Overnight Tornado Forecast Posted at 7:05pm

By -
Image
Here is the tornado forecast for the rest of the night (till 6am CST). Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Blown = significant risk of tornadoes.  This will be the last update of the night. Tornado Watch until 2am. Please make sure you have ways of getting warnings of tornadoes and 80 mph winds.  6:15pm  NWS believes the chances for tornadoes and damaging winds are increasing in Mississippi. They also say they are going to extend the tornado watch to the east later this evening.  5:35pm: The northwest part of the tornado watch has been cancelled Here is the area where tornadoes are more likely from 4:30 to 7:30pm. From Atmosphere Analytics Rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch till 9pm If you live in these areas it is vital  to monitor the weather until the watch expires at 9pm  Note the forecast is for "numerous strong tornadoes." A very rare "particularly dangerous situation" ...
Read more