Forecasts for Two Winter Storms

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Note to readers at 11:45pm Wednesday, January 1: after a quick look at this evening's data and models, the forecast below still looks good.  

This is important information for anyone traveling the next few days. Please factor it into your plans. 

Winter Storm #1

Above is a close-up of snowfall amounts in the Midwest. East of the Rockies, the snow will begin over Nebraska tonight. 

The snow will spread east into Iowa tomorrow (Thursday) morning and then farther east. Heavier amounts are likely over the Appalachians. 

Weekend  Storm #2, Major Storm Forecast

Above is the snapshot forecast weather map for 6am Sunday. A strong low pressure center is forecast to be over southeast Kansas with severe thunderstorms possible during the day over the south central U.S. as well as freezing rain and sleet in the purple area and heavy snow in the dark blue area. The models are showing wind gusts of 30mph or even stronger in the icing area of central and northeast Kansas which may cause power outages. 

As the low moves east, the geographic area percentage experiencing ice will shrink and the area to receive heavy snow will grow. 

Above is the forecast weather map for 2am Monday. Ignore the high (H) on the North Carolina - Georgia border. 

Freezing Rain Forecast
Above is a preliminary estimate of the amount of freezing rain with Saturday afternoon through Monday night storm. There will be a few heavier amounts in Kansas. 

Snowfall Amount Forecast

Note: it is too soon to attempt to forecast ice and snow amounts farther east. 

Forecast Temperatures for 6am Sunday

Given the strong temperature contrasts, there could be thunderstorms with the freezing rain as well as south of the warm front (see above map). 

Finally, this is a statistical + model informed probability forecast of ≥ .25 inches of freezing rain or 4" or more of snow or both from 6am Sunday to 6am Monday. The probabilities rise with every forecast.

Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday and Sunday Night

Of course, will provide a full update tomorrow. 

Just as an FYI, I have spent more than an hour forecasting before posting this data. That includes sketching out my forecast and picking the model or other graphic presentation that matches my analysis of what is going to occur. 

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