As much as 21 inches of precipitation are likely in the higher elevations of the Sierra in Northern California the next seven days. It is likely I-80 will be closed at times. Flood watches are in effect.  Southern California will have light to moderate rains, which is a good thing as we want any slides in the burnt areas to be minimal.  The amount of snow being forecast is almost off the charts. During the seven day period nearly 100 inches of snow are forecast to fall. Winter storm warnings are in effect. 

There is still a severe thunderstorm watch for the Hawaiian islands circled; this is from Oahu to Maui. The line of strong thunderstorms continues to move east. It is producing damaging winds and flash flooding. However, none of the thunderstorms appear to be tornadic at this point. Waterspouts associated with supercell thunderstorms occurred over and near Kauai this morning. Radar at 1:15pm HST. The National Weather Service is forecasting a significant risk of tornadoes in parts of the South tonight.  The area in brown is where SPC believes a signifiant tornado threat exists. Please monitor local weather information in case warnings are issued.  This will be my last update on the tornado risk tonight.

Sample TCAS display, red is the "threat aircraft" From: Rockwell-Collins During the last couple of hours, I have been asked by the news media about certain aspects of last night's horrific crash near Washington's Reagan National Airport. I have decided to share this information with you. I am taking the statements made by Washington officials that the helicopter was in the wrong place at their word and using that in my analysis. I want to emphasize that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) are the experts for whom I have a great deal of respect and it is their job and not the job of politicians or the FAA to investigate this crash. I am posting this with a goal of counteracting some of the horrible misinformation about this event. As someone who absolutely loves Wichita, I recommend reading Dion Lefler's excellent essay about how we are feeling today . It gives the non-technical side of the story.  The last U.S. mid-air collision involving a U.S. airlin...

We have two area of tornado risk today. The Island of Hawaii has a severe thunderstorm / tornado watch in effect. The radar below shows at least two supercell thunderstorms, one has already produced a waterspout.  There is also a tornado risk later today in the South (brown).  I will update the blog this afternoon regarding the Louisiana-Mississippi threat. You can also follow me for more coverage @usweatherexpert .

President Trump a few moments ago addressed the families and friends of those affected by last night's horrible crash and offered words of condolences from himself and the First Lady. He assured families their loved ones were in "the embrace of a loving God." I would also like to offer my prayers and condolences to the loved ones of everyone aboard both the American Airlines jet and the Blackhawk helicopter. It is a terrible coincidence that so many aboard were from the U.S. and Russian figure skating community (the U.S. championships were held in Wichita this past weekend).  Finally, the courage and respect of the first responders (below) was something all Americans should be proud of. Having to fight the river's current with the water temperature 34° in a desperate quest to find survivors is far beyond the call of duty. The photo is from Rep. Ben Crenshaw's twitter account.  In addition, world champion Russian skaters (per the Kremlin) Evgenia Shishkova and Vadi...

The U.S. Figure Skating Championships were held in Wichita this past weekend. These are the people who skate for Team USA in the Winter Olympics. There is more here . The story just gets worse and worse. There were a number of skaters and coaches aboard from both the U.S. and abroad.  Horrible aircraft mid-air crash this evening: American Airline's flight 5342 from Wichita to Washington-Reagan crashed into a military Blackhawk VIP helicopter. Of course, Wichita is my favorite city and I had friends on that flight as recently as last week. Please offer your prayers for all involved, including the first responders.  As of 10:55pm, 19 bodies have been recovered. That number is confirmed. No survivors have been found.  American Airlines has set up a number for families and others:  (800) 679-8215.  Reagan National Airport will be closed until 11am Eastern. Video of the crash and of the air traffic control screens are just below. I used several sources to compile rel...

Today is the 164th anniversary of my favorite state. Kansas is the #1 state for both winter wheat and beef. Corn is shown below. Wichita is the #1 city for airplane production and aircraft training. Its symbol is the "Keeper of the Plains," pictured below.  Kansas has the best sky of any place I've ever been (which includes 48 states and seven foreign nations). I still hope to get to Idaho and Montana. Kathleen and I frequently comment how much we love being Kansans. Come and visit us sometime!!

To say that the United States' warning system is deteriorating is an understatement. While I was writing yesterday's piece about FEMA, this popped up on my television screen complete with obnoxious loud tones (I apologize for the window reflections).  Nome, Alaska, is 3,271 miles from my home!  I doubt there is much chance the missing person will be in our neighborhood.  More and more we are seeing these nonsense warnings, which have two effects: The warning system becomes an annoyance rather than something valued.  It increases the chance that people will ignore a valuable message.  There are so many issues with our warning system today that "fixing FEMA" or "fixing the National Weather Service" won't cut it. A holistic approach is needed. And, our country will not have it until we have a National Disaster Review Board (NDBR).  I know my pleas for a NDRB may be getting old. But, the huge failures in North Carolina and Los Angeles show the urgent need f...

Here are the current drought conditions across the nation: The next seven days' precipitation forecast beings good news to a number of area. While Northern California is not currently in a drought, the heavy rains (more than ten inches in places) will fill reservoirs that serve other parts of the state. The snow in New England (see below) and in the intermountain region will also be helpful as with the moisture in the middle of the 48 states.  There is the possibility of minor flooding and, perhaps some flash flooding, in the south central states.  The above, from the National Weather Service shows where flooding is possible through next Monday. The orange is where minor river flooding may occur.  Note: while longer range forecasts can be dicey, there are solid indications that, after Day 7 -- when the above precipitation forecast ends -- rain will move into central and Southern California.  Important information regarding the forecast snow in the Northeast: U.S...

The long-suffering people of North Carolina are finally getting the help they need after (literally) living in tents for as long as four months. What the Biden Administration's FEMA did to these people was cruel and criminal. For example, FEMA moved 80 mobile homes into the area and then put them behind a fence (with a 24-hr guard) and only deployed two. Really. President Trump visited the area Friday in his first official trip in office. The National Guard has been deployed, cleanup specialists have arrived and things are underway.  Thank you, President Trump!!

For long-time readers of this blog, the number of articles pointing out the awful performance and priorities of FEMA, it very long. Here's one from April, 2010 (the blog began in November, 2009): The fact is that FEMA is focused on PR rather than assisting disaster victims.  They have actually used our tax dollars to hire models to play both disaster victims and FEMA employees (Hurricane Sandy) so they can take phony photos and use that in their PR efforts! The people originating 'misinformation' is usually FEMA! Even people on the other side of the political spectrum agree that major FEMA reforms are needed. But, what to do now that President Trump is appointing a panel to review FEMA's current state and options to move forward? While completely eliminating FEMA is tempting (today, it is often more trouble than it is worth), that is probably not the best course of action. My suggestions to President Trump are here . FEMA should be turned into a coordinating agency th...

Undoubtedly, you've heard about this in the media. Unfortunately, NOAA's disaster tabulations are propaganda and nothing more. As Dr Roger Pielke, Jr. wrote last week: NOAA still has a lot of work to do to bring its “Billion Dollar Disasters” tabulation up to minimal scientific standards, but a little progress is still progress. The "progress" noted by Dr. Pielke is that NOAA is now acknowledging (finally) that CO2 isn't the only thing (if it does at all) making disasters more costly but it is a larger population plus putting more valuable "stuff" in the path of storms. Dr. Pielke's peer-reviewed paper on how bad the NOAA product is can be found here .  I don't know who President Trump may have in mind to lead NOAA but I hope it is someone who will: Fix NOAA's propensity to propagandize rather than sticking to the science, and,  Facilitate breaking off weather forecasting and storm warnings from NOAA . While I have no basis for judging the m...

Chiefs just won the AFC Championship and will face the Eagles in the Super Bowl two weeks from today.  It is the first time -- ever -- a team has tone to the Super Bowl five times in six years. The Chiefs are amazing. In fact, the Chiefs will be the first team in position to even try for a three-peat. 

Euro News This is a genuine story. Really. 

The National Weather Service is forecasting more than seven inches of rain in east Texas and far west Louisiana this week.  At this point, only "limited" flooding impacts are forecast by the NWS. I will keep an eye on this and will update the forecast early in the week. 

Based on the latest data, the rain should begin in Southern California around midnight (local time) tonight. The significant rain and snow should end by late Tuesday afternoon.  Here is the forecast precipitation.  Forecast snowfall. The fact that snow will fall over the highest elevations is extremely good news in that it will minimize the chances of mudslides and debris flows. 

The advice below originally ran December 16. Unfortunately, the FEMA situation in North Carolina has only continued to deteriorate.  Yesterday, the President said he was considering reforming or even eliminating FEMA. I don't think too many would be sad to see it go given its utter incompetence. However, there may be a mission for a greatly slimmed down FEMA. I outline what that mission below. Unfortunately, I do not have a way to get this message to President Trump. If anyone knows the right person, please feel free to forward.  December 16th essay is below. One of dozens of homes destroyed by the 2022 Andover, Kansas, Tornado If you missed yesterday's story about FEMA on  Full Measure With Sharyl Attkisson , I encourage you to watch before reading further. You'll find the story  here . It explains some of the many issues with FEMA's current operating model that -- literally -- have DEI and climate change  ranking higher in FEMA's priorities than assisting...

With a hat tip to Joe Bastardi, here is a comparison of January's actual weather to the long-range outlook. Above is NOAA's temperature forecast for January, 2025, made in mid-December 2024. It called for warmer than average weather over every state except Hawaii.  As of the 21st, these are the actual temperatures for the 48 states. With the exceptions of California and Maine, the forecast could not be more wrong.  I have not found any forecasts of more than two weeks to have consistent skill and even those two week forecasts are dicey, especially in the warmer months.  Our goal is always to provide quality, accurate weather information and while long range forecasts gather clicks, that's now how we wish to grow our blog. 

President Trump is getting some very good advice from his people. FEMA not only hasn't helped in the southern Appalachians, they have gotten in the way.  Clearly, FEMA is a failed agency. It needs to be shrunken and put into the place of a coordinator and an agency to cut through red tape -- only. My specific recommendations are here .