The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part III

Investigating the 2011 Joplin Tornado

An Outline of the National Disaster Review Board

Regardless of whether there is an attempt to fix NOAA through incremental improvement or whether there is a “divorce” of the NWS from NOAA, neither has much of a chance to be successful without a National Disaster Review Board (NDRB) modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Accountability is not part of the culture inside the Beltway. The NDRB will be an essential step in that direction. 

Regardless of our political preferences and affiliations, regardless of our thoughts on climate change, I believe most of us can agree on the following:

• Mega-disasters (i.e., southern Appalachians after Helene, Maui Wildfire, etc.) are increasing. The cause(s) of the increase, for this discussion, is irrelevant. 

• We have not had a major earthquake in decades nor a major volcanic eruption. Either of those could dwarf the destruction and loss of life that has occurred in the Appalachians.

• Emergency management in the U.S.A., while much better than four decades ago, is still badly lacking in some parts of the nation. FEMA, which should be setting the example for professionalism and effectiveness, is so bad that many have concluded the nation would be better off without it in its present form (see: here and here, please note that one is left-wing and the other, right).

(above) Dr. Cliff Mass, yesterday.
More from Cliff at the pink link, below

• The quality of some types of forecasts and warnings from the National Weather Service (NWS) have regressed (!) in quality the last ~15 years. Others have noted the United States’ National Weather Service is 30 years behind some of the Europeans’ similar agencies. Speaking of 30 years, that is the age of the NWS’s radars which are failing at an accelerating rate. Spare parts are no longer available. Yet – incredibly – the NWS wants to wait until 2028 to even decide what type of radar (traditional rotating antenna or phased-array, the latter has been researched for a quarter-century) they want. It will take additional years to write specifications and begin procurement. 

• The National Weather Service keeps its own accuracy statistics. In other words, it reviews itself. Even if the statistics are highly accurate, investigating itself is a conflict of interest. 

• There is little sense of urgency to fix these issues at FEMA, the NWS or NOAA. Their current managements seem overwhelmed. Plus, there is too much insular thinking. Congress often doesn’t know where to turn for independent expertise.

• The USA has a deficit of $36 trillion that is growing rapidly and will sink our beloved nation unless things change – radically. 

I’ll say this with total confidence: If we get “the big one” earthquake in California or a Cascadia (Washington and Oregon) earthquake plus tsunami, with our precarious financial situation, it will sink the nation. If you thought COVID was bad, that was nothing comparing to the disruption the above will bring and I don’t just mean in the West, I'm referring to the entire nation. 

Operations of the Board

 

While I offered detailed suggestions to fix the National Weather Service in Part 1 of this series, I don’t know how to fix the rest except in general terms. I don’t believe any single individual does, which is why we need a panel of genuine experts. These are the reasons why we urgently need a National Disaster Review Board. 

• The board must be comprised of expert, applied* (not theoretical) meteorologists, hydrologists, seismologists, oceanographers, and warning communication specialists. Taking the Helene catastrophe as an example, they would be on the ground literally within hours (like the NTSB’s “go teams”) with a leasing agreement with a private jet company.

• Once there, they would observe the response from federal and local emergency management, hospitals, charities, et cetera. They would review NWS forecasts and warnings (local and national) as well as local broadcast meteorologists and warnings from commercial weather companies.The goal will not be to merely list what went wrong but to learn and promulgate best practices. 

• After this data is compiled, outside experts consulted (when necessary), and public hearings held, the Board's official report will be published, and the gathered information placed into a database anyone can access.  

Then -- at long last -- the U.S. will have what European and other nations have: a systematic way of improving emergency response that will save lives and save big money. 

 

In addition, the NDRB will take over the compilation of the accuracy statistics of National Weather Service’s storm-related forecasts and warnings. 

 

The headquarters of the National Disaster Review Board should be located far distant from Washington. It will help to insulate the board from politics and will keep it attuned to what the nation needs, not what political winds dictate. I recommend the Innovation Campus of Wichita State University. 

Wichita is at the dead-center of the nation and is the #1 city in the nation for aircraft manufacturing with multiple plane leasing companies there. Wichita State has been chosen to modernize the military's fleet of "doomsday" 747's (where the president can command our military in the case of a major war). WSU is a university with exceedingly smart people but does not have a major program in meteorology or emergency management. That is good! We need fresh ideas from the NDRB, not a rehash of the things that aren't working. 

Finally, by law, the NDRB will be forbidden to get into climate change. The United States already has the U.S. Climate Assessment and others for that. 

There’s already far too much duplication of efforts in Washington pertaining to meteorological computer modeling and other aspects of meteorology (see pink link above). The NDRB will help sort that out. 

 

In some ways, I wish all of this had come up in late January or early February after the new Congress is sworn in and organized and President Trump is in office. Nevertheless, as there are many Members of Congress who have been reelected, there is no time like the present to begin writing them and requesting:

 

·      Immediate help for southern Appalachia

·      Action (hearings, etc.) on a National Disaster Review Board as soon as possible after the new Congress is in session.

 

I would also write to President Trump with copies to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy (c/o The White House) immediately after January 20^th.

 

 

 * "In an emergency, one redneck is better than 10 PhD's."