Updated 5:50pm: Tornado Forecast for Today and Tonight

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Newest Tornado Watch
As mentioned below, it turns out the chance of tornadoes south of my red outline has increased. Please keep an eye on the weather in this region the rest of the evening..until midnight.


My Forecast Until 8pm
I believe there will be several tornadoes yet this afternoon and evening in the red outlined area. Please continue to monitor the latest weather information for possible warnings. There is also a lesser risk of tornadoes in the Texarkana to Paris to Tyler area. It would be wise to keep an eye on the weather in that area, also. 

Forecasting note for meteorologists: Since the mid-1970's, we've known that scattered supercells ahead of a line are a favored area for tornado formation. That is probably going to be the case this evening. 


New Tornado Watch, 1:35pm



2:20pm Update
Two independent forecast techniques indicates that the risk for tornadoes is rapidly increasing in the outlined area. This includes southeast Kansas which was not highlighted in other outlooks. Please begin monitoring radio and television for local storm warnings!


12:25pm Update
The area outlined in red has an increasing risk of tornadoes, especially after 3pm. Note: this certainly includes north Texas and the DFW Metroplex. I urge you to continue to monitor the weather in these areas.

Note: there is a significant risk of tornadoes farther northeast, especially this evening. We will cover that later. 


First Tornado Watch of the Day, 10:55am


Forecast Still Valid
There is an enhanced risk of a strong tornado in the hatched area. There is a significant risk of a tornado in the brown area. 
 

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