We are beginning to watch a weather system starting to form over the far western Caribbean that has the potential to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane next week. Preliminary forecasts indicate it will come into the Gulf. Beyond that, it is too soon to say. Please stay tuned. 

NWS National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, Maryland I wish to offer suggestions to President-Elect Trump pertaining to NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) as vital changes are required in going forward. Some types of NWS forecasts are getting less  accurate and we have fallen to 4th place in terms of the quality of our meteorological computer models.   While a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) may have seemed like a good idea in 1970, in practice it has been a disaster for meteorology. There has not been a weather-oriented administrator in 50 years (!). The current administrator shows zero interest in the NWS’s problems and is starving it of resources. When President Trump, during his first term, attempted to appoint an administrator who was focused on weather, he was slimed by marine interests (plus some anti-Trump people in general) who didn’t want their fiefdom disrupted.    Worse, NOAA has succumbed to global warming  advocacy  and its prod

Every state fair I've attended had some sort of butter display; some of which included milking cows as a demonstration of how butter is made.  In Kansas and many other states' fairs (Minnesota's is below) there are butter carving contests.  So, I'm trying to find out what government genius decided to do this idiotic thing.  And, what could be the stupidest possible reason for a butter recall? I'll let someone from Twitter answer the question. I'm confident these government geniuses are the same people who think electricity comes from the light switch and food comes from the grocery store. As CBS News goes on to say: The Food and Drug Administration Butter  said  both products list cream, "but may be missing the Contains Milk statement." [I italicized "may," the rest of the quote is verbatim] As longtime readers know, I strongly believe our government should be dispersed outside the Beltway to the greatest extent possible. I nominate the FDA

The Washington Post   has published an outstanding story regarding the loss of forests in the southern Appalachians as a result of Hurricane Helene.  Home or cabin surrounded by toppled trees near the top of a mountain. Washington Post The story's attempt to tie global warming to Hurricane Helene is weak and it does not sync with the IPCC's position that there is no certainty that hurricane strength is being influenced by climate change.  With that qualification, I highly recommend the story to you.  The disaster continues to grow. From Twitter Monday afternoon.  And, with Veteran's Day still in mind, the Post  has a story of vets volunteering to help the region put itself back together .  We wrote a second set of checks to Samaritan's Purse and the Salvation Army. If you can do so, I urge you to. Unless something has changed in the last two weeks, there are still people looking at a winter without electricity. They need all of the help they can get. 

Whether it is safe rooms under construction or bambi in the wild, please check out my library of photography at Adobe Stock Photography . Some additional samples below:

This is a photo of homes under construction in Olathe, Kansas. Each of those upright structures is a tornado "safe room." I understand that new homes with walkout basements must also have them.  Well done, Olathe!

The rainy pattern continues for most of the nation. Heavy to excessive rainfall is forecast for the Northwest. 

  A fantastic home for your family is for sale at 4031 N Tara Circle in Wichita. It is right on a golf course fairway with great views. Plenty of room for everyone and a special surprise in the attic room. It even has a built in attic HD TV antenna which means you can watch football off-air which is the highest possible quality signal! We are having an open house today from 2 to 4. Come and see it. You won't be disappointed. 

Given the wildfires in the West and drought in the central United States, the forecast rain is still needed.  Here is the latest drought map.  Keeping in mind yellow is not drought, the forecast rain will cause the area that is actually in drought to shrink considerably during the next ten days as it appears three storms will cross the region.  However, the drought in the East will worsen. Some areas have been experiencing the longest autumn dry spells in their history. 

What was suspected by many  has now been confirmed: FEMA ordered its people in Florida not  to call on, and offer relief to , homes with Trump signs in the wake of Hurricane Milton.  FEMA has confirmed this occurred. From the Daily Wire  (via Instapundit ): A federal disaster relief official ordered workers to bypass the homes of Donald Trump’s supporters as they surveyed damage caused by Hurricane Milton in Florida, according to internal correspondence obtained by The Daily Wire and confirmed by multiple federal employees. A FEMA supervisor told workers in a message to “avoid homes advertising Trump” as they canvassed Lake Placid, Florida to identify residents who could qualify for federal aid, internal messages viewed by The Daily Wire reveal. The supervisor, Marn’i Washington, relayed this message both verbally and in a group chat used by the relief team, multiple government employees told The Daily Wire. The government employees told The Daily Wire that at least 20 homes with Trump

This watch includes the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex as well as Waco.  There is already a tornado warning out as of 1:49pm. Please keep up on the weather in these areas!

270toWin.com Above is the supposedly final 2024 Electoral College Map. Notice anything that might be off?  Here's the oddity: Colorado is blue. That may be what its voters wanted but the voters don't decide Colorado's electoral votes anymore. The state passed a law saying that their votes go to the winner of the popular vote, which is Donald Trump. You can read it for yourself, here .  But, it isn't just Colorado. California has a similar law. Check here . Those are just two. New York, Minnesota and others have laws that guarantee their EV's go to the winner of the popular vote. That information is here . All together, those states make up 209 electoral votes! I have no way of modifying the above map but, essentially, Trump won about as many electoral votes (~521) as Ronald Reagan (525) in 1984's historic landslide, when he won all but Minnesota and the District of Columbia. Eyeballing it, it appears the only electoral votes Harris will receive this year are New

Kansas wheat ready for harvest. Move the Department of Agriculture to where farmers grow crops. As you are looking for ways to save money and make a refocused federal government run better, here's a suggestion: Disperse the Federal Government. Move much of it far outside of the Beltway. Here are some examples of where the shrunken departments should go: Department of Agriculture to Kansas City or Wichita Department of the Interior, Denver* Department of Transportation, Chicago You get the idea. In addition, Congress should suspend civil service regulations so that good people move and the less productive are given a "buyout."   The use of government jets needs to become the exception rather than the rule. Cabinet secretaries should fly first class commercial. When they do so, they should pass through the same TSA nonsense the rest of us have to go through. The advantages of this are vast. Let's consider the ag department: Having Agriculture department employees in tou

Trinidad, CO This Evening 9:30pm CST Radar Heavy snow is falling over parts of Colorado and New Mexico. There is video of cattle in eastern New Mexico earlier today with their legs entirely buried in snow. Via Pivotal Weather, here is the HRRR model forecast of 9am CST Friday. It is likely I-70 between Denver and the Kansas border will be closed as well as parts of I-76 and I-25.  Friday afternoon.  11pm CST Friday night.  National Weather Service Storm Warnings as of 5:15pm Thursday. Orange is a blizzard warning. Pink is a winter storm warning. Purple is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition. Pale blue is a freeze warning. Green is a flood watch. 

A fantastic home for your family is for sale at 4031 N Tara Circle in Wichita. It is right on a golf course fairway with great views. Plenty of room for everyone and a special surprise in the attic room. It even has a built in attic HD TV antenna which means you can watch football off-air -- which is the highest possible quality signal! There will be an open house Sunday from 2 to 4. Come and see it. You won't be disappointed. 

By the end of the forecast period, then Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to have maximum sustained winds of only 40 mph. Confidence is not high in the last day or two of the forecast. 

Spain's recent flood, in which 27" of rain fell, has been the topic of a number of claims. I'd like to clarify: This was a weather event, not a climate event. Climate is what happens over decades and centuries, not days.  The fact that WWA and others say it was worsened by climate change is meaningless. They claim every unusual or extreme weather event is related to climate change. The horrific death toll is not due to climate. Again, it was a weather event. There are charges that a flood forecast/warning was delayed eight hours. There are allegations that dozens  of flood control dams have been removed for environmental reasons. Unfortunately, I have no way of independently verifying that claim.  The importance of meteorological warning systems is demonstrated by this graph from  environmentalist Bjorn Lomborg. Note that non-climate (earthquake, etc.*) deaths are relatively flat while meteorological warning systems have caused deaths to plummet.  * After the 2004 tsunami

Current winds in Hurricane Rafael are 115 mph. This is likely the highest winds the storm will produce.  By the end of the forecast period, the winds are forecast to have weakened to 40 mph. However, there is very low confidence in the forecast path is indicated by the huge white area (the "confidence interval) by 72 hours into the storm's path.  Currently, the center of the storm is moving over Cuba (see below). Moving over Cuba's rough terrain will cause weakening. As the storm turns farther to the west, drier air and unfavorable atmospheric conditions will cause the weakening. Hopefully, we'll know tomorrow with greater confidence where the storm will ultimately go.

Best wishes to you and to J. D. Vance on your election. 

The FAA says it will keep staff meteorologists at 21 air traffic control centers. A few days after the union representing the weather specialists issued a press release saying the agency planned to get rid of them in favor of automated systems, the agency said it wasn't so. "The Federal Aviation Administration and the National Weather Service will continue our long-standing partnership to provide weather services to ensure the safety of the National Airspace System," an FAA spokesperson  told USA TODAY  in a statement.

Winds are now 80 mph and still increasing.

Wall Street Journal   Why in the world would New York's Democrat government go to the trouble to raid a home and then spend five hours ransacking the home  -- which was part of a wildlife refuge -- because of a healthy squirrel? There's only one reason: it is to send a message: " We are the government, we have the muscle and the force, and you better not cross us!" Does this sound like America to you? I wasn't planning to write an election day message this year. But, the horrific treatment of Peanut the Squirrel and its owners changed my mind. This is America  for gosh sakes. "Land of the Free, Home of the Brave." This sort of planned, and ever more frequent, governmental abuse cannot stand.  As usual, President Reagan said it best: If freedom in America falls, there is no other refuge.  While I wish Donald Trump was stronger on the First Amendment, Kamala Harris has made it clear, many times, she has no respect for individual rights whatsoever. As Snop

More than eight inches in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. 

Newest Tornado Watch As mentioned below, it turns out the chance of tornadoes south of my red outline has increased. Please keep an eye on the weather in this region the rest of the evening..until midnight. My Forecast Until 8pm I believe there will be several tornadoes yet this afternoon and evening in the red outlined area. Please continue to monitor the latest weather information for possible warnings. There is also a lesser risk of tornadoes in the Texarkana to Paris to Tyler area. It would be wise to keep an eye on the weather in that area, also.  Forecasting note for meteorologists: Since the mid-1970's, we've known that scattered supercells ahead of a line are a favored area for tornado formation. That is probably going to be the case this evening.  New Tornado Watch, 1:35pm 2:20pm Update Two independent forecast techniques indicates that the risk for tornadoes is rapidly increasing in the outlined area. This includes southeast Kansas which was not highlighted in other