More than eight inches in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. 

Newest Tornado Watch As mentioned below, it turns out the chance of tornadoes south of my red outline has increased. Please keep an eye on the weather in this region the rest of the evening..until midnight. My Forecast Until 8pm I believe there will be several tornadoes yet this afternoon and evening in the red outlined area. Please continue to monitor the latest weather information for possible warnings. There is also a lesser risk of tornadoes in the Texarkana to Paris to Tyler area. It would be wise to keep an eye on the weather in that area, also.  Forecasting note for meteorologists: Since the mid-1970's, we've known that scattered supercells ahead of a line are a favored area for tornado formation. That is probably going to be the case this evening.  New Tornado Watch, 1:35pm 2:20pm Update Two independent forecast techniques indicates that the risk for tornadoes is rapidly increasing in the outlined area. This includes southeast Kansas which was not highlighted in other

Tropical Storm Rafael is now official with 45 mph sustained winds. The forecast is below. The storm's winds are forecast to peak at ~100 mph in 48 hours and then gradually weaken. 

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storm warning for Jamaica. Hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands. Hurricane watch for western Cuba along with a tropical storm watch farther east.  While the storm is still a tropical depression, it is forecast to strengthen into Rafael. The forecast is for the storm to weaken before reaching the U.S. coast. 

Because there is a chance of tornadoes Monday morning, as well as during the more frequent afternoon and evening hours, I'm posting this special tornado outlook.  There is an enhanced risk of strong  tornadoes in the yellow hatched area. This includes Table Rock Lake in Missouri and Bull Shoals in Arkansas.  It also includes Gainesville and Sherman as well as Dallas in Texas. The unhatched yellow area (Missouri) includes Ft Leonard Wood as well as Lebanon. It means there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes, generally of lesser intensity. The brown area = significant chance of tornadoes, including Mexico and Boonville (MO), Pittsburg (KS), the rest of the DFW Metroplex, and Tyler and Lufkin. During the morning hours, if you are in this area and live west of I-35, it will be important for you to keep up on the latest local weather warnings.  For the rest of the area, the threat will be enhanced during the afternoon and nighttime hours.  Of course, I will update in the morning.  

Kari King via KFOR TV This is a two-section posting pertaining to the warning system issues in central Oklahoma this morning: The first part is for everyone and the second part is for meteorologists, storm chasers and emergency managers.    For the Public   While your clocks were automatically resetting this morning, tornadoes were raking central Oklahoma. And, while – thank God – there were no fatalities, these tornadoes brought terrible damage. They also bring the National Weather Service’s (NWS) issues with tornado forecasting and tornado warning into stark relief.    Friday, I  apologized and wrote about Wednesday's tornado forecasts  where no tornadoes occurred.  This morning was the opposite, and more dangerous, situation: no forecast yet strong tornadoes occurred. Imagine being awakened by the sound of your home flying apart in the middle of night with no warning whatsoever. This was the circumstance of dozens of people in the Sooner State this morning.  The Weather Channel

We have a tropical storm waring for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands.  On this map, S = tropical storm and H = hurricane. At this point, it does not appear likely that a hurricane will strike the United States. However, we will watch the situation carefully and update as necessary. 

11pm update: the threat of tornadoes is over for today.  There is a major tornado threat Monday. That forecast is here .  -- original posting -- A new tornado watch has just been issued for parts o Oklahoma and far north central Texas.  As of 2:20pm, not the two tornado warnings (red polygons) in southwest Oklahoma. The line of thunderstorms in north Texas should be watched carefully.  -- original posting --  There is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes in the yellow area which includes Sherman and Gainesville in north Texas.  There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area from Ft. Smith to Ft. Worth to near San Angelo.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas today!!

From a tape kept by the late Tommy DeVito, here's Dawn  as performed in 1964 by the original Four Seasons. Sublime. 

Rainfall amounts to 9pm Saturday. More than six inches of rain have fallen in a small area of northwest Butler County, Kansas. Four inch amounts common in south central Kansas.  More rain is on the way. Below is the radar as of 10pm. Rain is generally moving NNE. The rainfall forecast is still valid.  Here's the latest rainfall forecast for the next five days.  Please note the forecast of seven inches in Oklahoma.  The radar at 8am shows heavy rain already falling. Wichita has a local flood warning out already. The storms are generally moving northeast. 

I wish to apologize for my over-forecast of tornado risk Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Yesterday, I was among a group of people and the man next to me (we were strangers) began complaining about the tornado watch. I don't blame him! We have had some really bad tornado watch busts in Kansas in 2024. Wednesday was one of them.  There were just four tornadoes, all Wednesday night.  The Missouri-Illinois tornadoes were in just a several thunderstorm watch. Of the southern tornadoes, one was in a tornado watch and the second was in no watch at all.  In the highest tornado risk area of the NWS (below; the hatched area), there were no tornadoes at all Other than a small gustnado (captured by two storm chase groups) near Guthrie , was there no tornado in my highest risk area . See P.S. below  pertaining to my forecast (in red immediately below). From a member of a storm chasing discussion group yesterday: I must admit, if you told me back then [2007-2008] that there'd be relatively m

Part two of the major rain event will begin tonight in the southern Great Plains.    You all see a tiny yellow dot in the vicinity of Tulsa. That color means ten inches of rain. Please note, that is an approximation of the location. There is the potential for a small ten inch total near I-44 just about anywhere in Oklahoma. 

The odds of a tropical depression have gone up to 70% this morning and it is forecast to move north or northwest. I'll continue to provide updates.