11:20pm Update on Tornado and Damaging Wind Risk

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11:20pm, this ends our storm coverage for tonight. 



7:45pm, the area with the better chance of tornadoes is outline in red.



Tornado watch for northeast and east central Oklahoma. 
It is in effect until midnight. 


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Tornadoes "likely" with winds gusts to 80 mph. The watch is in effect until 10pm. 


2:10pm Update: a tornado watch is out. It includes Cottonwood Falls, Pratt and Medicine Lodge in Kansas and Alva, Anadarko and Fairview in Oklahoma. Please keep up on the latest storm warnings!



I dislike these watches. If they believe there will be tornadoes, then a tornado watch should be issued. Note also that 80 mph thunderstorm-generated winds are also forecast to occur in the yellow area. 

Please keep up with the weather in these areas!

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12: 45pm Updated items in blue. The rest of the 8:30am forecast is unchanged. 

It could be an active day in the Central United States: Please monitor the weather if you live in these locations. 

The yellow, hatched area is where there is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. 

In Nebraska, this includes Falls City and in Missouri, St. Joseph. In Kansas, Arkansas City is included along with Marysville and Atchison. 

In Oklahoma, Pawhuska is included. 

11:30am Addition: While I agree with the SPC forecasts nearby, I believe the greatest chance of tornadoes is in the red area.

Interestingly, for about the same area, the NWS has added (hatched) an area where they are forecasting hail of 2" or larger. It includes Wichita, Newton, Harper, El Dorado and Arkansas City in Kansas.

The overall risk is below. Brown means there is a significant risk of tornadoes. Please note that since yesterday, the southern edge of the significant risk area has been drawn north of the DFW Metroplex. 
The entire enhanced (yellow) risk area also has an enhanced risk of thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. 

There is the potential, especially from Kansas into Iowa that severe thunderstorms could develop this morning. 

I will update again later today. I'll also keep you updated on Twitter @usweatherexpert. 

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