10:30pm Update: Serious Tornado Risk Wednesday Afternoon and Evening; Increasing Flood Risk

Note: As of 8:15am Wednesday, this forecast has been updated. Please go here for the latest. 

As of 10:30pm Tuesday, it appears the strong tornado forecast (hatching) may have to be brought south into Kay and Osage counties of Oklahoma and west to I-35 in south central Kansas. 

I will have an update in the mid- to late morning Wednesday. 

1:30pm: It is important that people in the threatened areas (below) pay close attention to the weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. This includes school officials.

The area in hatched yellow has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. In Nebraska, this includes Beatrice. The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes. In Oklahoma, this includes Ponca City and Pawhuska. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. 

Please note the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex is included in the "significant" tornado risk area. There is also a risk of damaging thunderstorm winds throughout these areas. 

In addition.... a heads up for flooding:

Above is the 7-day rainfall forecast. The amber area on the Kansas-Oklahoma border is a forecast of 7 inches of rain! The orange area from Missouri to the Red River is 5-7 inches. While much of this area is in drought, this is enough rain that at least localized flooding will occur.  

The NWS's 7-day National Flood Outlook calls for no flooding. I believe this is another very poor forecast from this organization.

Of course, I will update these forecasts tomorrow. 

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We don't usually discuss tornadoes the day before unless it will be a big tornado outbreak (this isn't) or the tornado risk is out of season (this is). 

There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the area outlined in red Wednesday afternoon and early evening.  If you live in these areas that include Wichita, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Enid and Emporia, please plan on monitoring the weather tomorrow. 

Of course, I will update the situation.