9:50pm CDT Saturday Hurricane Milton Forecast for Florida West Coast

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The National Hurricane Center's forecast (upper) is now for Milton to be a Cat 3 at landfall. Its 9:45pm forecast is immediately below. The storm now has 45 mph winds. 


My forecast is unchanged from 3:40pm this afternoon. The advance below is also unchanged. 

Milton is still a tropical storm at 4pm. Its pressure is 1006 mb and its winds are up to 40 mph. However, it is forecast to develop into a hurricane and strike the west coast of Florida the middle of next week. 

What makes the situation unusual is that the storm will be approaching from the west southwest. This means the storm will strike at nearly a 90° angle. That enhances the storm surge and wind effects along and, especially, just to the right (in this case, south) of the eye. 

Milton may resemble 2005's Wilma (map below). Peach is Cat 2 and yellow is Cat 1. 

Even though Wilma was not particularly strong, its approach angle made the storm more powerful than many people in Florida expected. It did a staggering (for that intensity) $21 billion in 2005 dollars damage. Twenty people died. 

If I lived in or near the area outlined by the arrows, I would be refreshing hurricane supplies, getting extra cash and preparing for an extended period of power outage. Most of the nation's spare electrical workers are in the east Tennessee and the Carolinas so there will likely be fewer than usual available to fix Florida outages. Make sure the elderly and infirm will be cared for.   

Addition at 3:55pm: For completeness, here is the forecast from the National Hurricane Center. 
H = hurricane. M = "major" hurricane (Cat 3).

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