6:50pm Tuesday Update on Milton

Per the National Hurricane Center at 5pm, Milton is back up to Cat 5 with 165 mph or even a little stronger winds. The eye is filled with lightning; meaning the storm may intensify further. At 5:30pm Hurricane Hunters found the pressure has dropped very rapidly the past 4 hours. The short-term outlook is more strengthening. 

Having done this for more than 50 years, something about this hurricane looks "mean." I notice that other meteorologists have the same assessment. While that is instinct, the science backs it up. The storm now has 165+ mph winds and the pressure is a low 923 below 905 902 millibars (6:50pm EDT). Too words: Get Out! if you are in an evacuation zone. You will find a link to some great evacuation tips at a link, below. 

Milton will cause widespread long-duration power failures across Florida. Water and sewer service will likely fail as they did with Andrew. For example, it is day 12 and more than 176,000 homes and businesses are still without power from Helene. Milton is stronger. 

Above is the satellite image from 3:47pm EDT.

Here's the latest forecast (5pm) from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). I agree with it. However, the dots are meant to be appropriate positions. The eye will come inland near Tampa Bay but we cannot yet be confident as to whether it will be direct hit or a little north or south.

Wind speeds at landfall may be a stronger than the 125 mph NHC has been predicting. The storm is forecast move across the entire width of the Florida Peninsula with ≥ 100 mph winds. That is why the hurricane warning (red) is out for that rather large region. Blue is a tropical storm warning and yellow is a tropical storm watch. 

Below is a reasonable depiction of the winds based on the ECMWF Model. In places, they may be stronger given the fact Milton has become a little stronger this afternoon. 

It makes a significant different in surge and tidal patterns whether the eye goes up the mouth of Tampa Bay/just to the north. That is the worst case. However, there will still be significant surge damage even if the eye goes to the south. All preparations need to be complete by 10am Wednesday as wind speeds will increase throughout the day. Here are excellent evacuation suggestions. 

Here is more information about Tampa and farther south toward Sanibel and Naples. Red means a depth of 9' or more. This is a highly built up area. 

If these forecasts are correct, when combined with Helene, this will be a terrible disaster not only for the Florida Gulf Coast, but for the nation. The costs will be in the tens of billions, people will die (sorry to be blunt) if caught in the surge zone, and businesses will be knocked out for extended periods of time. The entire nation will be affected in ways large and small.

Here is a map summarizing the surge threat. In Tampa Bay, the surge is forecast to be 10-15 feet. The forecast for Charlotte Harbor has been raised to 8 to 12 feet. 

 

Here is an evacuation map.

Inland, life threatening flooding and tornadoes will occur. The tornadoes will primarily be along and south of I-4. 

Here is a map of forecast rainfall amounts.

I will try to update again late this evening. Again, if you are in an evacuation area get out!