10pm EDT Category 5 Hurricane Milton Update - 165 mph Winds!

As of 10pm, the storm has weakened just a bit with 165 mph winds and rising pressures. However, the forecast below is essentially unchanged with a 125 mph sustained winds hurricane and a crushing storm surge at landfall.

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Official Hurricane Warnings Up For Tampa and Parts of the Florida Gulf Coast!

As of 5pm EDT: Wind speeds 180 mph sustained winds with gusts to 200+ mph. Pressure 897 millibars. Winds forecast to strengthen to 185 sustained during the night. 

Something about this storm just looks mean. Although I have turned the lightning display off, there is considerable lighting in the eye -- still. That mean it is still strengthening or attempting to strengthen. The storm is currently moving due east at 9 mph. There has been a little bit of a slight bit of northern movement during the past hour or so. 

Please note (pink) that hurricane-force winds are forecast to be possible all the way to Jacksonville, Cape Canaveral and Melbourne. The red is where hurricane force winds are likely. The eye should cross the coast between Crystal River and Englewood. The worst effects will be along the path of the eye and about 50 miles to the south. 

Hurricane warnings (red)are out for the middle Florida Gulf Coast as far inland as Orlando. Even though the eye is slightly inland at 1am Thursday, the forecast winds are still 125 mph. 

Storm surge heights in the 5pm advisory have been raised. Please follow local evacuation orders. This is a highly dangerous storm. If the eye goes across or just north of Tampa Bay, the effects will be devastating and it will be one of the most expensive disasters in United States history. Note that, for Tampa Bay, the surge could be as much as 15' above sea level with, of course, high waves on top of the surge. 

Below is a map of housing units in the area where landfall will occur plus the worst storm surge south of the eye. There is a tremendous amount of built-up property in harm's way.

Do not be lulled into a false sense of security by the forecast decreasing winds at landfall (125 mph). Those are still major hurricane winds. Katrina weakened before landfall but the storm surge she carried was catastrophic. Below is a photo taken by my friend, Jim Reed, of the devastation in Mississippi caused by Katrina's surge. 

The ground in much of Florida is already wet due to recent rains. There will be extremely heavy rates of rainfall with Milton. So, flooding is likely!

Starting tomorrow (Wednesday) there will be tornadoes with the storm, especially along and south of I-4. 

Advice from the Tampa NWS if you decide to stay....

Please read the above. I remind you about having adequate food, water and sanitation if you are more than a week without electricity. If you aren't sure you have them, leave!