The 7-day tropical outlook has a 60% chance of a tropical depression forming in the Caribbean. Right now, nothing to worry about. And, there may not be anything to worry about except heavy rain. 

Above is the 48 hour rainfall ending at 9am this morning. While helpful, in most winter wheat areas, far more rain is needed.  Below is the 7-day forecast of additional rainfall.  That is 7 inches of rain forecast in northeast and south central Oklahoma. 

11:20pm, this ends our storm coverage for tonight.  7:45pm, the area with the better chance of tornadoes is outline in red. Tornado watch for northeast and east central Oklahoma.  It is in effect until midnight.  --- Tornadoes "likely" with winds gusts to 80 mph. The watch is in effect until 10pm.  2:10pm Update: a tornado watch is out. It includes Cottonwood Falls, Pratt and Medicine Lodge in Kansas and Alva, Anadarko and Fairview in Oklahoma. Please keep up on the latest storm warnings! I dislike these watches. If they believe there will be tornadoes, then a tornado watch should be issued. Note also that 80 mph thunderstorm-generated winds are also forecast to occur in the yellow area.  Please keep up with the weather in these areas! ---- 12: 45pm Updated items in blue. The rest of the 8:30am forecast is unchanged.  It could be an active day in the Central United States: Please monitor the weather if you live in these locations.  The yellow, hatched ...

I believe the decision to eliminate meteorologist support from the 22 Air Route Traffic Control Centers has received a well-deserved firestorm of opposition. Evidently, the FAA has made a 180° turn! Fiscal year 2025 ends September 30 of next year. Due to the severe thunderstorms in progress at this time, Troy gets the last words of the day. ------- After receiving quite of bit of, at best, critical email saying the story below wasn't true (I wouldn't have posted it if there was doubt about its veracity), we now have  confirmation -- unfortunately.  Aviation safety is taking a big step backward. -- original story below -- National Weather Service web site While there is no official release, there is a report  -- from a person I know is quite reliable -- this evening that the Federal Aviation Administration is going to end the in-person support from National Weather Service meteorologists effective April 1, 2025 -- which, of course, is near the start of tornado and severe...

500 millibar forecast from the European Model ...how many times have we discussed that the National Weather Service (NWS) has major issues and is falling ever farther behind the state-of-the-art? By now, it must be in the dozens. More and more, others are realizing the ever-growing problems.  For the third time in seven days, the Washington Post has published a balanced and informative article about how the National Weather Service is rapidly falling behind in the field of AI and weather forecasting. To quote the article: The European Center’s fast start in AI “speaks to the differences in how the U.S. and Europeans organize their meteorological science and service strategy,” said Scott Weaver, who previously served as the White House executive director of meteorology. “European weather services are more streamlined and agile, so can potentially take advantage of rapid advances in science and move them into operations more quickly.”  Experts point to NOAA’s more complex ...

Note: As of 8:15am Wednesday, this forecast has been updated. Please go here for the latest.  As of 10:30pm Tuesday, it appears the strong tornado forecast (hatching) may have to be brought south into Kay and Osage counties of Oklahoma and west to I-35 in south central Kansas.  I will have an update in the mid- to late morning Wednesday.  1:30pm: It is important that people in the threatened areas (below) pay close attention to the weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. This includes school officials. The area in hatched yellow has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. In Nebraska, this includes Beatrice. The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes. In Oklahoma, this includes Ponca City and Pawhuska. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Please note the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex is included in the "significant" tornado risk area. There is also a risk of damaging thunderstorm winds throughout these areas.  In addition.... a heads up for fl...

A rather spectacular sunset this evening. It will be a huge change with tornadoes in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon and evening .

If you wish to read a great, balanced article regarding global warming and storms go here . I want to congratulate the Washington Post  for the huge effort it took to cover the state-of-the-art on the topic.  While I highly recommend the entire article, there is an important item in the middle: A tornado in Rhode Island has nothing to do with a tornado in Nebraska. NOAA takes these widely dispersed in time (note it is over three days) and geography and lumps them together so they can make it appear their "billion dollar disasters" can keep growing. It is completely unscientific and used to be beneath NOAA.

Above is the National Weather Service's latest rainfall forecast for the next seven days. The amber area on the Kansas-Oklahoma border is 5 inches and some models are showing even more.  The first round of thunderstorms is expected Wednesday and Wednesday night in the Great Plains and Midwest.  Even sooner, in the higher elevations of Utah, Wyoming and Colorado moderate to heavy snow is likely 

I'm sure many of you know Sharyl Attkisson from her national Sunday morning news show,  Full Measure News .  She invited me on her podcast last week and it is now posted. We discuss the tragic Hurricane Helene disaster, my proposed National Disaster Review Board, and other interesting topics. I hope you will listen! Note: the bad link to the podcast has been fixed. 

We have an updated rainfall amount forecast and it has increased amounts and expanded the forecast to the west.  I believe this forecast is right on the money as opposed to the earlier forecast posted below. I'll keep monitoring this situation.]  -- original post -- Finally, needed moderate to heavy rainfalls are in the offing. Below is the forecast 7-day rainfall. I believe there will be a little more rain than indicated on the west side of the rainfall area in the central United States. The long-range models tend to have a bit of an east bias.  Here is the latest drought map (please keep in mind that yellow ≠ drought, just dryness).  Beyond 7-days, the rain is forecast to continue in the central U.S.

I'm again complementing the Washington Post  for yet another outstanding story on a weather-related topic. I highly recommend this story about Hurricane Helene and its victims .

We've frequently talked about how global warming, while being a real issue, has been increasingly exploited for those seeking power and money.  On the international front, we've just learned that between $26 and $41 billion  dollars have gone missing .  The Washington Post  is hardly a conservative publication yet even it has had to cover the many billions that were appropriated for electric vehicle charging stations (top of page) that have purchased almost nothing . This is not to be confused with the $42 billion program for rural internet which has connected zero people .  Big Climate exists to skim as much money as possible from these programs and, since most reporters and asssignment editors are liberal, they don't wish to dig into this deep corruption because it would make "their side" look bad.  Regardless of politics, the United States -- once the "land of opportunity -- is increasingly being strangled by its federal deficit. We simply cannot af...

Photo by Frank Carpenter - unretouched color - 6:30pm A line of thunderstorms continues to develop across the east half of Kansas. The photographs were taken at Tuttle Creek Res., northeast of Manhattan, looking east. Here's what the sky looked like about 15 minutes earlier.  Meanwhile, the storms on radar continue to blossom.  Fortunately, these storms will primarily be desperately needed rain than anything severe. 

... and, this is accurate.  And, the criticisms with regard to FEMA and the Red Cross continue to come in. I have not recommended donating to the Red Cross for more than a decade. After a great deal of criticism came in after Katrina, their "switching" of donations intended for Hurricane Sandy (2012) relief was unethical. The RC puts its disaster donations into a single pot along with its income from other sources. Money is then doled out as the RC sees fit. In other words, your disaster donation may well end up remodeling a Red Cross office nowhere near the disaster. I also do not like the nearly $700,000 annual salary given to its president (100% of Salvation Army personnel are volunteers) and its use of private jets.  The Red Cross says it gives "nearly" 90% of its donations to various needy people (those who need blood transfusions, veterans, et cetera) but with Salvation Army and Samaritan's Purse, virtually 100% go to those who need it. 

The only thing I think could account for this absurd headline is that Big Climate's internal polling shows a big shift toward Republicans with the election now less than two weeks away. Perhaps they believe that scaring unwitting people might move the needle back toward the Democrats.  The chance of a hurricane striking Chicago now? Zero. Chance of a hurricane striking Chicago in 2100?   Zero. 

We do not present monthly, seasonal, yearly or forecasts of even longer range on this blog.  I have not seen any of these forecasts that have consistent  skill, especially as pertains rainfall. I was looking at one of last year's seasonal forecast and its validation was so bad that users would have been better off assuming the opposite of what was forecast for that location. 

Here is the 72-hour rainfall (snow in the Colorado mountains) ending at 11am CDT this morning. Green is an inch or more and yellow is four inches or more.  Below is the latest drought map (from last week's data).

Union Pacific's " Big Boy" steam locomotive barreled through the KC suburb of Martin City Tuesday afternoon. These are the largest stream locomotives ever made -- 25 units for manufactured for World War II use. They pulled trains over the Rockies during the war. Its wheels are seven feet tall. They are so massive that when they made a tour a few years ago, my sister complained, "I couldn't see anything because we were too close!" Union Pacific Railroad deserves a lot of credit for keeping this aspect of railroad history alive. Enjoy the video. My daughter-in-law caught the Big Boy in eastern Colorado on its way to  Denver. She and her family, who had not seen it before, were impressed. You can a better perspective of the entire loco in this piece.

Pleased to let you know that three more photos have been added to my collection at Adobe Stock Photography . Take a look when you have a chance. I think you will enjoy them.  Just a reminder, there is a second page to the collection.

The area in brown over eastern New Mexico has a significant risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Please keep up on local storm warnings.  Monday, there is at least a chance of tornadoes in Kansas. Stay tuned!

Fortunately, we haven't had to do one of these for a while. The brown area, which extends north to Mountainair and Santa Rosa, has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in the region. 

Our home in Northeast Wichita is on the market and we are having an open house  on Sunday from 2 to 4pm. It is a great house and we loved living there for 32 years. It is a nice open lot with terrific views of sunsets.  You can see interior and exterior photos and learn more here .  If you live in Wichita or are moving to Wichita-Sedgwick County, please take a look. You will be glad you did!!

The past month has clarified how Big Climate colludes with and has become imbedded in America's mainstream news media, literally. These organizations "embed" their activists in newspapers and other new organizations, even my hometown Wichita Eagle. You'll recall even while Helene and Milton were ramping up, I was writing about Big Climate getting its press releases ready which the media would publish practically verbatim. Others have noticed. Sure enough... With the permission of Dr. Ryan Maue (PhD in Tropical Meteorology from Florida State University and former Chief Scientist for NOAA), I'm reproducing a recent tweet of his. Yet, "climate change is causing worse hurricanes" is not the position of mainstream climate science! I'll present that in a moment.  A meteorology student, Chris Martz, has noticed the same thing. With permission, I'm reproducing a tweet of his: Evidence of global warming: • Tornadoes in Tornado Alley occurring in tornado ...

Charles Peek of The Weather Channel is a remarkable reporter. He's getting the stories of Helene that others are missing.  Think about it: going without power for a winter! If you haven't donated to Salvation Army or Samaritan's Purse, what are you waiting for?!

And, from LinkedIn. The federal government is sclerotic and seemingly incapable of internal change. Hope that Musk gets a chance to reform it.