Tropical Storm Likely in East Gulf Region (5:30pm Update)

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I am now sufficiently confident to forecast the development of a tropical storm or hurricane in the region outlined above. 

Added Note: For my many Houston-area readers, I'm not worried about this storm significantly affecting that metro area. 

Added at 5:30pm. Predictably, there are those who are posting ridiculous model images intended to generate clicks. Please don't fall for them. At this point there is absolutely no reason to believe a super hurricane is going to form. The quality models only forecast a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane. 

There is an area of low pressure and tropical thunderstorms south of Cuba that will gradually organize. 

I do not believe the storm will develop before Tuesday night or Wednesday and it may take even longer. The area where it will organize will be in the area generally between Cuba and the Yucatan. It will not reach the U.S. before the end of the week. 

What would I do if I lived in a coastal area with storm potential? 
  • Make sure infirm relatives and friends will be cared for. 
  • Refill prescriptions. 
  • Purchase any essentials.
  • Fully fuel your auto and/or chain saw. 
  • Make sure your "go kit" is up-to-date and ready.
Of course, I will update on this threat as the week progresses. 

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