Important: Flooding Info for the Southeast and Appalachians

By -
This information has been updated. 
Please click here for the latest. 

-----

At this point, the National Weather Service says, there will be only "isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians and the Tennessee Valley." I emphatically disagree. 

Below is the rainfall forecast for the next seven days. 
Yellow is ten inches of rain, amber is seven inches and orange is more than five inches. Given both the amounts and the geographic extent of the rains, I believe there will be moderate to serious flooding in the orange areas. The remains of Helene are forecast to move to the west which is why five inches of rain is forecast to fall over the Ozarks Plateau over southern Missouri. 

The just received ECMWF model, which usually does a very good job in these situations, is forecasting more than 13 inches of rain in far north Georgia and nearby areas of North Carolina and Tennessee. As much as eight inches of rain is forecast near Atlanta. 
If you live in an area prone to flooding or an area that is rather low in comparison to the area around you, please prepare for the possibility of flooding. This includes:
  • Prepare a "go kit" in case you have to evacuate. This includes precious heirlooms, valuable financial and person info (credit cards, checks, etc. plus birth certificates, etc.) if you store them in your home. Include enough clothing for 3-4 days, medicines, et cetera.
  • Keep your car fully fueled. If you live in the area between Atlanta and the Florida Panhandle, fuel your chain saw if you have one. Trees may topple. 
  • Refill medicines. 
  • Get extra cash from the ATM.
Please follow me on this blog and on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert. I'll continue to update these forecasts. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue is 0.1 to .25 inc
Read more