How Did the Francine Forecast Work Out?

As our long-time readers know, we grade all of our original forecasts and, yes, we have given ourselves an F in the past. 

So, here is the grading for our forecast for Francine made September 7. This was a full day before the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories. 

The star is the position of landfall of Hurricane Francine. 

The National Hurricane Center's forecast, published after the forecast above, does not have the eventual point of landfall, even though it is a seven day forecast, in the threat area. 

My grade for this forecast is A-. The minus is because of the "hardly a sure thing" messaging. It should have been stronger. 

There is a second grade to give for not forecasting tropical storm development in the six days preceding this forecast when The Weather Channel and others were forecasting that "something" might develop. The not forecasting development when it was crossing the Atlantic is an A.