Helene - Thoughts on a Hurricane and Life-Saving Weather Science

In many ways, Hurricane Helene was the oddest I’ve ever covered. And I have been doing this for more than a half-century. 

Helene at landfall

As early as September 19, a number of either phony or malicious forecasts of the "worst hurricane in the history of the world" (i.e., barometric pressure well below 26 inches of mercury) would form in the Gulf of Mexico. One of those postings forecast a hurricane with a pressure of 833 millibars -- which is meteorologically impossible. Because those forecasts 1) cause needless angst and 2) hurt the credibility of genuine forecasts, I wrote on the 20th, “[the worst hurricane in the history of the world] It won’t happen.”

One of the many ridiculous forecasts posted in the past week.
Barometric pressure forecast below 26 inches of mercury.

I also wrote in the same piece, “Could a tropical storm or even a hurricane form in the latter part of next [this] week? Yes.”

 

On the 22^nd, I began coverage of what would become Helene by running hurricane safety suggestions and my first forecast of the storm. This was a full day before official forecasts began being issued.

The next day, I ran an updated forecast on pending Helene and, just as I was about to publish the piece, the National Hurricane Center began issuing forecasts on the storm. So, I added it to the bottom of the piece. 

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast on the 23^rd not only had the direction of movement correct, they also forecast 110 mph winds – an absolutely outstanding forecast three days before. NHC did a great job for coastal and inland areas with Helene -- with one exception: NHC and the NWS were far too slow to forecast or acknowledge the huge flooding threat posed by Helene. So, I began my series of post regarding flooding. The first of those is here. 

It and every one of my flooding forecasts thereafter singled out the flooding threat to the Atlanta Metro which was under a rare "flash flood emergency" this morning. 

WSB TV, Atlanta

Green =flash flood warning. Red = rare flash flood emergency.

Unfortunately, some didn’t believe us and our emphatic forecasts.

It is difficult to overstate the seriousness of the flooding and I'm worried the national media will not give it the attention it deserves. 

The cleanup is beginning in some areas, but rivers are rising – some to record levels – in others. Power is out for more than 10 million people. I urge you to donate to the Salvation Army’s disaster recovery fund as they do a great job with practically zero overhead. 

Helene will be remembered in the Southeast for a very long time to come, if for no other reason than the global warming hype which -- predictably -- has already begun. 

Rather than Big Climate hyping the storm, far more useful media coverage would center on the National Hurricane Center and its partners making an absolutely amazing forecast of "rapid intensification" so that residents of the affected areas knew days in advance a major hurricane was on the way and could prepare accordingly. 

Approximately 15 deaths have, so far, been caused by Helene. While that number seems high, it is very small in the history of hurricanes. Just two years ago, more than 120 died in Florida alone when the forecasts of Hurricane Ian made by some were of subpar quality. 

We should celebrate the huge scientific accomplishment of the forecasts of Hurricane Helene and the countless lives those forecasts have saved.