645pm Update: Heads Up For Louisiana, Texas and Tamaulipas

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Note: this forecast has been updated. Go here for the latest. 



Update at 6:45pm. The National Hurricane Center now seems to agree with my forecast. 
The red area is where they are forecasting an 80% chance of a tropical depression, or stronger storm, to develop sometime during the next seven days. I believe the best chance is in the Tuesday to Thursday period for tropical storm development. 

Update at 6pm: The afternoon model runs, among the models I trust, continue to show a good chance (at least 50%) of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf. I will update this forecast Sunday morning. 

Update at 1pm: The new run of the models I trust are in and my confidence has only grown that there is a threat of a tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico to the west of the orange line. The rest of this forecast (below) is still valid. 

People in the USA and northeast Mexico (west of the orange line) should keep an eye on the weather this week. While this is hardly a sure thing, I believe the potential is sufficient to give residents of the region a "heads up."

The Meteorology
The satellite at 9:55am shows low level winds starting to take on a cyclonic flow pattern and barometric pressures are starting to fall. The ICON (which handled Beryl in the same area very well), UKMET and ECMWF all indicate development by the middle of next week. 

Suggestions
However, the path of any tropical depression or storm is still uncertain. So, people in Louisiana, Texas, and the State of Tamaulipas in Mexico should keep an eye on this weather system. 

If you live in a flood-prone area, I suggest you assemble a "go kit" of family valuables as well as medicines, clothing for a few days, bottles of water, protein bars, and other items you may need if an evacuation is ordered. Also, be thinking about an infirm friends and relatives and assistance they may need. 

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