Forecasts and Overview of Hurricane Helene 4:15pm EDT Wednesday

3:50pm comment. A number of the models are showing landfall a bit farther east than earlier forecasts. So as to prevent confusion, I have been using the National Hurricane Center's position and intensity forecasts for Helene. The next forecast from NHC will be out in an hour. If you live in northern Florida, please check back for possible updates. 

After several tries, I think Helene will finally be successful in forming an eye. Here is the satellite image from 4:10 EDT.

11:10am: Helene is officially a hurricane with 80 mph winds and will be a major hurricane with a large diameter at landfall.  Wind speeds at landfall are forecast to be 125 mph with stronger gusts. This is a life-threatening storm. 

• There will be a life-threatening storm surge. 
• High winds will precede the eye by hours. 
• Heavy rain will cause major  flooding from the Florida Panhandle through the Southeast and southern Appalachians. 
• Tornadoes are likely. 

Below is the radar from Cancun, Mexico as of 10:40am. It shows the storm has still not formed a closed eye.

Strength and Location Forecast

Landfall of the eye will be late Thursday evening but damaging winds will precede the eye. See below for time estimate. Please note the hurricane warning (red) extends well inland. Tallahassee will be hard hit. 

Here is an explanation of the map. 

• M = major hurricane with sustained winds to 125 mph at landfall
• H = hurricane.
• S = tropical storm. 
• Red = hurricane warning
• Blue = tropical storm warnings
• Pink = hurricane watch
• Yellow = tropical storm watch 
• Amber = area of tropical storm force winds (40 to 75 mph, at this time)

What would I do now if I lived in a coastal area with this storm potential? 

• Make sure infirm relatives and friends will be cared for. 
• Refill prescriptions. 
• Purchase any essentials.
• Fully fuel your auto and/or chain saw. 
• Electric vehicles should be evacuated from the coastal areas as their batteries and salt water do not mix. 
• Make sure your "go kit" is up-to-date and ready. There will likely be evacuations in coastal areas of the Panhandle, in Tampa Bay and most of the area of the Florida Big Bend!
• If you live in a mobile home, make plans to shelter elsewhere if the storm reaches hurricane strength. 
• There will be power failures that, in many cases, will last for days. Prepare accordingly.

Below is an estimate of the earliest reasonable arrival of 40 mph winds. Winds will get stronger as the day progresses along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. 

Storm Surge

Please note the storm surge could be as high as 15 feet in the Florida Big Bend region. Tampa Bay will have a surge of 5 to 8 feet. Evacuation notices should be heeded!

From Craig Cecee, the latest evacuation orders (12:30pm)

Tornado Forecast

There will be a few, isolated tornadoes today and tonight in Florida and the Southeast. By far, the greater threat will be tomorrow (Thursday).

In the brown area, there is a significant risk of tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night. In the yellow area, there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes. 

Major Flood Potential - Updated 12:40am

The NWS has updated the flash flood potential forecast from now until 8am Eastern time Thursday. 

Below is the flash flood forecast from 8a Thursday to 8a Friday. 

Here is a zoomed image of where rainfalls will be the greatest. 

There is a forecast of 17.8 inches near the borders of Georgia - South Carolina - North Carolina. This will cause catastrophic flooding! If you live near a river, you may consider evacuating even before an official order is issued. Extreme rainfall is also forecast in the Atlanta-Macon area as well as in the Florida Panhandle.