Forecast of Pending Tropical Storm, Including National Hurricane Center Forecast

Here is an update on the looming tropical storm that threatens the eastern Gulf region. I believe there is about a 60% chance it will reach hurricane strength. The map shows the forecast path of the center of the storm. You can also view the National Hurricane Center's just-issued forecast below. 

Please note that I have narrowed the forecast path from yesterday with the Mississippi coast no longer in the forecast path and I've moved the eastern boundary up the Florida coast a bit. The storm will likely be a tropical storm as it moves north northeast through the Yucatan Channel between Cancun and Cuba. It may reach hurricane strength before it reaches Florida.

Always keep in mind that high winds, storm surge and dangerous surf will occur with any hurricane near the center but also to the east of the path of the center. 

What would I do now if I lived in a coastal area with this storm potential? 

• Make sure infirm relatives and friends will be cared for. 
• Refill prescriptions. 
• Purchase any essentials.
• Fully fuel your auto and/or chain saw. 
• Make sure your "go kit" is up-to-date and ready.
• If you live in a mobile home, make plans to shelter elsewhere if the storm reaches hurricane strength. 

Of course, I will update on this threat as the week progresses. 

Update 11:20am EDT: The National Hurricane Center has decided to begin issuing forecasts on this system. Their path (of the center) is below. They are forecasting the storm to be a hurricane, possibly with 110 mph winds, at landfall.

As you can see, our forecasts are about the same.