After All of the Absurd Hype Last Week

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Following up on yesterday's blog posting......
Phil, with Colorado State U, is one of the foremost hurricane forecast experts in the United States. 

Above from Washington Post last week.

The X (below) denotes an "area of disorganized thunderstorms" the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has followed, starting early last week, almost all the way across the Atlantic. It was the basis of The Weather Channel's and innumerable bloggers' hype. 
Now, there is -- at most -- a 20% chance of a tropical depression (below a tropical storm or hurricane in significance) before it runs into mainland Mexico. 

I don't think NHC can escape some of the blame for the hype. We don't have any consistent skill at forecasting hurricanes 7 days and farther into the future. I don't see the need for 10+ days of "a 40% of a tropical depresssion" forecasts all the two-thirds of the way across the Atlantic. 

We will never hesitate to bring a genuine threat to your attention. Reminder: We do not participate in hurricane hype. Unless we see a significant threat to the United States, we don't tweet about it and then only starting within 5-7 days of possible landfall. 

If your friends are apprehensive about hurricanes, please refer them to this site. 

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