Important update, 5:30pm Friday. There is a phony  (as in created maliciously) image circulating around the internet, allegedly from a model that indicates the worst hurricane in the history of the world in the Gulf of Mexico late this upcoming week. Don't worry:  it won't happen!  Could a tropical storm, or even hurricane, form in the latter part of next week? Yes. Do we have any idea where a storm will go ( if  it forms)? No! Given the breathless, and almost certainly incorrect, forecasts others made for the 2024 hurricane season, unethical people are seeking page views by putting out scary, unrealistic forecasts. The ECMWF model is the best for forecasting hurricanes. At 1pm next Wednesday (below) there is nothing out there. So, don't lose sleep over these clickbait forecasts. As was the case with all of the hurricanes this year, you'll hear from us in plenty of time.  --- original posting --- At this point (8:30am Friday), I do not forecast a tropical storm (or hurr

Badly needed rain is forecast to occur from the central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. Below is yesterday's drought map. Their technique overstates drought a bit (the yellow areas) but the area from the Texas Big Bend through Kansas and into the eastern lakes south to Virginia is almost entirely in drought.  It is the time of year when the 2025 winter wheat crop is planted and the rain will insure the wheat will have adequate moisture for its start. 

The brown area, which includes parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and far northern Iowa (including Mason City and Spencer), have a significant risk of tornadoes. I expect the first thunderstorms to form sometime after 2pm.  Please keep an eye on the weather in these areas. 

The entire article (caution: paywall) is here . 

We are having an estate sale. In additional to the usual, we will have... O Gauge model trains (Lionel, MTH, etc.) and railroading books.  Camera equipment, many in excellent condition.  The sale will be October 3rd to 5th. Please contact Vintage Vision Estate Sales, (316)  618-4674. or  Jshear1218@gmail.com

The Wichita Eagle  had a fascinating and well-reported story from central Kansas Sunday on the topic of solar panels being installed near Cheyenne Bottoms (CB), an area which, from an environmental perspective, is highly sensitive. CB is a swampy area on the "Central States Flyway" -- which is probably the most important bird migration path in North America.  There is a proposal to put a large solar array very close to the southeast edge of CB. This raises a large number of environmental questions. For example, there are birds which cannot take off unless they are in water? Will they be deceived by the panels, which may appear to be water, land, and die?  That said, there is an aspect of the story that was omitted that I believe is extremely important: Why are we taking more prime agricultural land out of production for solar panels?  Yes, the owners have property rights. Yes, solar panels pay more than food farming. But, at what cost? The contract from the solar company is

While I completely agree Hawaii officials missed every opportunity to prepare for the catastrophic Maui Wildfire of 2023 , including the Maui emergency managers going to Honolulu for meetings the day of the hellish fires, here's the problem: how were they supposed to prepare?!  The wildfire killed 102 and utterly destroyed the once-beautiful town of Lahina.  The fact is that many, if not most, emergency managers don't know how to prepare for this type of disagree. One of the reasons they do not know how to prepare is because there is no central resource for this type of information like there is a National Transportation Safety Board for that type of accident.  This is why the United States needs to join Great Britain and other nations and establish a National Disaster Review Board so that we stop making the same mistakes over and over.  During this election season, ask your congressional candidates about this issue. 

Ted Fujita with me in 1993. Ted visited WeatherData, Inc on a  couple of occasions, this was when he presented some initial findings of his research on Hurricane Andrew.  Unquestionably, the greatest and most innovative meteorologist of the 20th Century was  Dr. Ted Fujita . Among his discoveries were downbursts, the oscillating tornado alley, wall cloud association with tornadoes, suction vortices and The Fujita Scale, among others. Ted was personally modest and low-key about his accomplishments but he evoked a surprising amount of envy -- which has held weather science back in a number of ways.  While I cannot speak for others, the envy seemed to stem from his willingness to go into the field and do the very hard work of examining the debris, collecting unconventional data like individuals' photos of storms, and the emotional work of speaking to those affected. Because he was usually the only person willing to take this forensic approach, his success in getting funding for his in

The amber is the area where tropical storm force winds, in this case 40-45mph, are occurring. The storm may have 50 mph winds or so when it moves inland.  The primary effect of this system will be heavy rain. As much as 7" are forecast to occur near the southern North Carolina coasts. 

Perhaps because of my years in television, I enjoy TV blooper reels. They were a staple of each year's Christmas party.  A few nights ago, I came across the funniest blooper reel I've ever seen and I'd like to share it with you. Two of my former stations are included: Ch 2, KTVI, in St. Louis with a reference to a McDonald's character, and Oklahoma City's Ch 4. It is right at the beginning (third one in). I'm glad central Oklahoma finally got a place for pastrami sandwiches.

On a discussion group this week, there has been discussion about the early days of Doppler radar. That was a topic we covered a while back. Here is a piece about the first time a Doppler detected a tornado (the F-4 El Dorado, KS Tornado) with a link to KAKE-TV's outstanding documentary on the topic. 

You don't have to take my word for it. The atmosphere and experience at Bill Snyder Family Stadium tonight (yes, Friday) is the best in the country. The story is here . The K-State Wildcats are playing the Arizona Wildcats in Manhattan this evening on Fox.  So, go KSU!!

The Guardian  is a far left newspaper but even they are -- finally -- catching on to the climate scam and the graft that goes with it.  For the umpteenth time: humans affect the climate and we need to decarbonize energy using nuclear.  But most of the papers on the subject of global warming and most of graft-filled schemes proposed are just  junk that waste money and resources. Have you noticed that none of these people ever defines what victory against climate change looks like? All we are doing is spending trillions  on practically nothing. 

As our long-time readers know, we grade all of our original forecasts and, yes, we have given ourselves an F in the past.  So, here is the grading for our forecast for Francine made September 7. This was a full day  before the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories.  The star is the position of landfall of Hurricane Francine.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast, published after  the forecast above, does not have the eventual point of landfall, even though it is a seven day forecast, in the threat area.  My grade for this forecast is A-. The minus is because of the "hardly a sure thing" messaging. It should have been stronger.  There is a second grade to give for not  forecasting tropical storm development in the six days preceding this forecast when The Weather Channel and others were forecasting that "something" might develop. The not  forecasting development when it was crossing the Atlantic is an A.

This is in effect until 6am Friday. 

Power Outages Rainfall Extreme flooding is occurring in New Orleans per the National Weather Service.  More than eight inches of rain have fallen today in west New Orleans. This is equivalent to a 50 year flood in some areas. 

Radar at 7:04pm shows a widening eye that has fallen apart. Wind gusts at the New Orleans Louis Armstrong Airport have reached 65 mph.  Unfortunately, power has gone out in a large area near and along the path of the storm.  This will be the last update as the storm is inland.  5pm -- official landfall 4pm radar As I feared, the storm has officially intensified to 100 mph (Cat 2) with gusts to 120 mph. As predicted below, the highest winds will be moving into New Orleans in about an hour.  The power outages are increasing rapidly. ---- 3:30p ---- 3:30p The highest winds are in the hatched "W" area. They will be arriving in downtown New Orleans or the French Quarter after 4:30pm. Please make sure you are in sturdy shelter.  2pm Update The highest winds are in the "donut" marked with the W . It is moving toward New Orleans.  First area of concentrated power outages in orange. There will be many more before the sun sets.  ---- We have our first tornado warning of the d

This brief essay , written by a then-student on Staten Island, is well done. God Bless everyone affected by that horrible event.

Hurricane Francine's warnings have become more extensive. The tropical storm warning has been extended into southwest Mississippi. At 8:25pm, the speed has increased to 77 mph and the pressure has dropped to 977 millibars. These values are still valid at 10:10pm. The maximum sustained winds at landfall are forecast to be 100 to 105 mph with stronger gusts.  Color codes (above): Red = hurricane warning. Pink = hurricane watch. Blue = tropical storm warning (winds of 40 to 73 mph) Yellow = tropical storm watch. Amber = current area of 40 to 75 mph winds.  Brown = hurricane force winds of 75 mph or stronger In addition to a tropical storm warning, there is a hurricane watch for Baton Rouge and the Greater New Orleans area. The tropical storm warning has been extended to the western Florida Panhandle.  Here are the forecast winds for the Baton Rouge and New Orleans areas.  There will be widespread tree damage and power outages. On the Lake, there is an outside chance of wind gusts to 9

The forecast has not changed much since yesterday. Red is a hurricane warning. Blue is a tropical storm warning. Yellow is a tropical storm watch. The wind speed is forecast to br 100 mph at landfall. 

8:40pm note: For those who have been following along with my forecasts, I have been telling people in Baton Rouge (especially) and New Orleans to make preparations for damaging winds. Based on the latest data, I believe the threat for those two cities has risen since earlier today.  4:10pm Update: Hurricane warnings have been posted for the Louisiana coast (red).  Winds at landfall are now forecast to be 100 mph, which is a significant change since this morning's forecast. There is also a high surge warning. The pink/blue is a hurricane watch/tropical storm warning. Yellow is a tropical storm watch. Damaging winds are likely in Baton Rouge and possible in New Orleans. In red, the storm surge is forecast to be up to 10 feet -- a life-threatening situation.  Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of the path of the eye of the hurricane.  Now is the time to prepare. Below is the time of arrival of the 40 mph or stronger winds.   Along the coast and in flood-prone areas: Assemble