9:50pm Sunday Update: Tropical Storm Developing

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This forecast has been updated. Please go here for the latest forecast. 

Here is the 10pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center. 
Please note that a tropical storm watch has been issued for the far south Texas coast. Francine is forecast to be an 80 mph hurricane at landfall. However, there is a chance landfall could occur anywhere within te white zone. 
I will have more information Monday morning. 

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Published at 3:30pm Sunday...

Based on Hurricane Hunter data we have winds as high as 55-60 mph over the southwest Gulf. However, the winds are not yet circular, so it isn't an official tropical storm as yet. There is little doubt that a tropical storm will develop and a hurricane is possible.  

I would not change my forecast from yesterday. 
If you live to the west (left) of the orange line, you have the potential for tropical storm, or even hurricane, conditions as the week progresses. I've been getting questions from readers in the Houston area. At this point, the odds favor a landfall to the northeast of Houston but Houston is not yet out of the woods. 

If it were me, I would begin preparations in the upper Texas coast, along the Louisiana coast, and in flood prone areas near the coast. 
  • Assemble a "go kit" if you haven't already. This includes family heirlooms as well as essentials such as medicines, protein bars, water bottles and a few days of clothes in case you are ordered to evacuate. 
  • If you have a generator, fill it with fuel. 
  • Keep your car filled with fuel. 
  • Get some extra cash (ATMs won't work if you don't have power). 
  • If you have a chain saw, test it and fill it with fuel. 
As far as the timing is concerned, I believe we could see a full-blown tropical storm as soon as Tuesday. 

Additional information from 4pm advisory from National Hurricane Center (NHC). Their forecast is essentially the same as mine. 
Above is the NHC path forecast for the next 3 days. Please note the "H" on the 1p Wednesday forecast which indicates they are forecasting a hurricane before it makes landfall. There is a chance this path forecast is a little too fast. The amber area off the Mexican coast is where tropical storm winds are occurring but, as explained above, the winds do not yet have a circular pattern. 

There is a tropical storm watch along the northeast coast of Mexico but no advisories are out for the U.S. Gulf Coast at this time. 
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There are other tropical systems in the middle of the Atlantic that I am keeping an eye on for you but those pose no threat at this time. 

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