12:20am Update on Tropical Storm Helene

By -
This forecast has been updated. Please go here for a later forecast. 




Information for meteorologists is at the bottom of this post. 

This map is critical. It shows the life-threatening storm surge expected with Helene. 
Five to eight feet of surge expected in Tampa Bay and highly dangerous surges to the north. 

Helene is officially a tropical storm. The central pressure is 1000mb and the maximum sustained winds are 45 mph. 
Pink is a hurricane watch. Helene is a very large storm which means two things: there will be strong wind gusts to the east of the center and inland (the hurricane watch extends to the Georgia coast) and that there will be flooding well inland, especially near and east of the mountains in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Wind gusts of 50 mph or stronger could reach as far inland as Atlanta. 

Yellow is a tropical storm watch which means there is the potential for wind gusts above 50 mph.

Here is an explanation of the map. 
  • M = major hurricane with sustained winds to 115 mph. 
  • H = hurricane.
  • S = tropical storm. 
  • Blue = tropical storm warnings
  • Pink = hurricane watch
  • Yellow = tropical storm watch 
  • Amber = area of tropical storm force winds (40 to 50 mph, at this time)
Assuming the forecast works out, the hurricane will be named Helene. 

What would I do now if I lived in a coastal area with this storm potential? 
  • Make sure infirm relatives and friends will be cared for. 
  • Refill prescriptions. 
  • Purchase any essentials.
  • Fully fuel your auto and/or chain saw. 
  • Make sure your "go kit" is up-to-date and ready. There will likely be evacuations in coastal areas and in Tampa Bay!
  • If you live in a mobile home, make plans to shelter elsewhere if the storm reaches hurricane strength. 
Information for Meteorologists as of 12:20pm EDT

We finally have an eye with Helene, but other than the towering cumulus cloud immediately below the tip of the arrow. However, clouds are going to have to wrap around the eye before any significant development can take place. 

The Canadian model is well west of the others. Also, please keep in mind the GFS usually over forecasts hurricanes and tropical storms. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more