...journalist Andrew Revkin will run an interview recorded with me earlier this afternoon regarding forecasts for Helene and why this makes a National Disaster Review Board essential. It will air here at 5:30pm CDT (25 minutes from now). 

While the catastrophe in the southern Appalachians should continue to dominate the weather news the next few days as it is a catastrophe and, at least in terms of geography, far worse than Katrina.  That said, it is important to consider the worsening drought in the central and parts of the western United States. Below is the forecast rainfall for the next seven days. Going a little farther out, here is the National Weather Service's 8-14 rainfall outlook. Wichita already has water restrictions and, if I were a water manager in the central areas already experiencing drought, you may wish to proactively consider what another two dry weeks may mean. Addition:  In the Southwest, the problem is also heat. 

Comrade Kamala and this generation of Democrats are the most dangerous to our freedoms -- ever! The "addition" item below this is why they think 30  Starlinks is news. It should 300! Addition: This is the Biden-Harris Administration's #1 goal at FEMA. It certainly isn't disaster recovery. 

I agree with the NWS's forecast. 

The map of current  power outages gives one an idea. I'm not sure I've seen anything like it.  Here is a report from hard-hit Asheville, NC.  In the strongest possible way, I urge you to donate to reputable disaster agencies like the Salvation Army . I don't recommend the Red Cross because your money may not go to disaster relief. They just put it in one big operational pot. 

1550Z is 11:50am Eastern Daylight Time. What all of this means is that there is another major  failure of National Weather Service (NWS) communications and data processing capabilities. These have become far too common.  The southern Appalachian region is suffering through the worst natural disaster -- by far -- in its known history due to the flooding from Helene -- which the NWS was slow to warn of .  There are quality people in the NWS desperately trying to do the right things but I fear the lack of resources and autonomy (NOAA is the worst thing to ever happen to the NWS) has them hamstrung.  The United States, for this and many other reasons, desperately needs a National Disaster Review Board modeled after the National Transportation Safety Board.  The size of this disaster is overwhelming (see map below) and the media's coverage -- so far -- has been woefully inadequate. We need a National Weather Service that is the best in the world. Only an independent ...

I've had a half dozen articles forwarded to me starting this morning that contain various complaints pertaining to the forecasts for Helene. I'm not sure what to make of them: with one exception (which I noted at the time), I thought the forecasts were quite good .  That exception was that the NWS was far too slow to pick up on the threat of catastrophic flooding in the Appalachians. But, that was noted on this blog at the time. Published here on the 24th: Meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd wrote in Forbes  today: Addition Sunday Evening: From Virginia Postrel this evening.  As noted above and below, that may have been true pertaining to the National Weather Service but it certainly was not true here nor was it on at least one other site that I viewed last week. I wrote on the 25th, Please look at what I published farther down in the same piece. The red X is in the original. No areas of catastrophic flooding [pink] were on that map nor were there forecasts of "major"...

It looks like we are going to have a week of dry weather in the central Great Plains and western Midwest. Update: NWS forecast rainfall for the next seven days. Their forecast agrees with ours.  [resume original text] High pressure in the upper atmosphere is going to block any high pressure systems from approaching from the west. The remains of Helene combined with a low pressure area and it will sit around the Ohio Valley for the next few days causing showers.  The drought map is from data collected through this past Tuesday and does not  include any of the rain from Helene. The sluggish low pressure in the Ohio Valley will provide additional rain to ease the severe drought in Ohio and West Virginia. Unfortunately, farther west, the drought will deepen for at least another nine days (as far as I venture to forecast). 

Published just yesterday... There is no such thing as aviation fuel that does not add to the greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. Global warming has more hypocrisy attached to it than perhaps any other topic in history.  Keep this in mind when you are being lectured to about your carbon footprint and Hurricane Helene. 

Topic of Dissertation:  How Did These People End Up on the Hospital's Roof? Given at least two days of flash flood watches, it seems odd that all of these people were in the hospital when the floodwaters came. I'm sure the story is fascinating and I'm sure we weather scientists could learn better ways of conveying extreme weather threat information.  The photo below is of a helicopter rescuing people from the roof. One would think, given the hospital's proximity to the river, they would be highly flood aware.  Any takers?

In many ways, Hurricane Helene was the oddest I’ve ever covered. And I have been doing this for more than a half-century.  Helene at landfall As early as September 19, a number of either phony or malicious forecasts of the "worst hurricane in the history of the world" (i.e., barometric pressure  well  below 26 inches of mercury) would form in the Gulf of Mexico. One of those postings forecast a hurricane with a pressure of 833 millibars -- which is meteorologically impossible. Because those forecasts 1) cause needless angst and 2) hurt the credibility of genuine forecasts, I wrote on the 20th, “[the worst hurricane in the history of the world] It won’t happen.” One of the many ridiculous forecasts posted in the past week. Barometric pressure forecast below 26 inches of mercury. I also wrote in the same piece, “Could a tropical storm or even a hurricane form in the latter part of next [this] week? Yes.”   On the 22 nd , I began coverage of what would become Helene by ...

The path of Helene in power outages The latest figures show [updated] 4,300,000 homes and businesses without power which equals nearly ten million people.  It is going to be days or even weeks before power is restored.  A rare flash flood emergency  is in effect for metropolitan Atlanta at this time.  [updated] We believe this is the largest "flash flood emergency area" ever issued.  Below is the rainfall map for the 48 hours ending at 9am today. More than 24 inches have fallen along the border of North and South Carolina! It is still raining in the area. Mt Mitchell, North Carolina, just reported a wind gust of 108 mph! (Added Friday Afternoon) Here is the current location of the storm.  Below is the forecast for additional  rainfall from now to Saturday evening. 

The 11p advisory from the National Hurricane Center is in and there are no surprises.  This is the radar at 11pm. The Hurricane Center says winds are 140 mph but that may be "a bit conservative." The storm will move north from here causing catastrophic flooding as well as serious wind damage as far north as I-20. Unfortunately, this has to be the last advisory of the night.

Here's the position of the eye at 10:31p EDT: The worse winds will be on the east side of Tallahassee. Perry is getting blasted now with damage already reported in the town. Lamont, Madison and Monticello will see rapidly increasing winds the next 30 minutes. 

The eyewall continues to push onshore. It is moving nearly due north at the moment with a slight bit of eastward movement. Looks like the east side of Tallahassee may see significantly stronger winds than the west side. 

In his study of Hurricane Andrew, Dr. Ted Fujita found what he called "mini-swirls" in the eye of that hurricane. They were areas of swirling air, larger than a tornado, that had higher winds that the official wind speed of the eye. It is starting look like we have those now.  Again, this is why people in the path must shelter like it is a tornado approaching rather than a hurricane, if the eyewall is boing to pass over or near you. 9:52p addition. The Tallahassee Dopppler just measured winds of 172 mph about 1,500 above the ground. Those extreme winds were ~5,000' a little while ago. I believe they are making their way to the ground and may produce gusts of that intensity.

One of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft just measured 164 mph winds in Helene at 7,000' above sea level. This nearly perfectly corresponds to what we are seeing on Doppler radar just below that level. These will likely get to ground level, at least as gusts.  Still lots of lightning on the radar at 9:26pm. The eyewall, with those extreme winds, is now brushing the coast near Steinhatchee and west of Salem. The storm is moving just a touch east of north at this time. The eyewall should be moving over land during the next hour.  A NWS extreme wind warning for winds > 100 mph is in effect for the areas outlined below.  Now is the time to get into your tornado shelters. Due to the extreme winds of Helene, sheltering like it is a tornado is necessary.