Ted Fujita with me in 1993. Ted visited WeatherData, Inc on a  couple of occasions, this was when he presented some initial findings of his research on Hurricane Andrew.  Unquestionably, the greatest and most innovative meteorologist of the 20th Century was  Dr. Ted Fujita . Among his discoveries were downbursts, the oscillating tornado alley, wall cloud association with tornadoes, suction vortices and The Fujita Scale, among others. Ted was personally modest and low-key about his accomplishments but he evoked a surprising amount of envy -- which has held weather science back in a number of ways.  While I cannot speak for others, the envy seemed to stem from his willingness to go into the field and do the very hard work of examining the debris, collecting unconventional data like individuals' photos of storms, and the emotional work of speaking to those affected. Because he was usually the only person willing to take this forensic approach, his success in getting funding for his in

The amber is the area where tropical storm force winds, in this case 40-45mph, are occurring. The storm may have 50 mph winds or so when it moves inland.  The primary effect of this system will be heavy rain. As much as 7" are forecast to occur near the southern North Carolina coasts. 

Perhaps because of my years in television, I enjoy TV blooper reels. They were a staple of each year's Christmas party.  A few nights ago, I came across the funniest blooper reel I've ever seen and I'd like to share it with you. Two of my former stations are included: Ch 2, KTVI, in St. Louis with a reference to a McDonald's character, and Oklahoma City's Ch 4. It is right at the beginning (third one in). I'm glad central Oklahoma finally got a place for pastrami sandwiches.

I've decided to sell some of my O Gauge trains. All are in working order (except a couple, which are marked) and most are in their original boxes. There will also be some books and other related items. In addition, we are selling a number of items from our home which include vintage vinyl albums and books.  I'll have more info in a few days but the sale will be October 3rd to 5th. Please contact Vintage Vision Estate Sales, (316)  618-4674. or  Jshear1218@gmail.com

On a discussion group this week, there has been discussion about the early days of Doppler radar. That was a topic we covered a while back. Here is a piece about the first time a Doppler detected a tornado (the F-4 El Dorado, KS Tornado) with a link to KAKE-TV's outstanding documentary on the topic. 

You don't have to take my word for it. The atmosphere and experience at Bill Snyder Family Stadium tonight (yes, Friday) is the best in the country. The story is here . The K-State Wildcats are playing the Arizona Wildcats in Manhattan this evening on Fox.  So, go KSU!!

The Guardian  is a far left newspaper but even they are -- finally -- catching on to the climate scam and the graft that goes with it.  For the umpteenth time: humans affect the climate and we need to decarbonize energy using nuclear.  But most of the papers on the subject of global warming and most of graft-filled schemes proposed are just  junk that waste money and resources. Have you noticed that none of these people ever defines what victory against climate change looks like? All we are doing is spending trillions  on practically nothing. 

As our long-time readers know, we grade all of our original forecasts and, yes, we have given ourselves an F in the past.  So, here is the grading for our forecast for Francine made September 7. This was a full day  before the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories.  The star is the position of landfall of Hurricane Francine.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast, published after  the forecast above, does not have the eventual point of landfall, even though it is a seven day forecast, in the threat area.  My grade for this forecast is A-. The minus is because of the "hardly a sure thing" messaging. It should have been stronger.  There is a second grade to give for not  forecasting tropical storm development in the six days preceding this forecast when The Weather Channel and others were forecasting that "something" might develop. The not  forecasting development when it was crossing the Atlantic is an A.

This is in effect until 6am Friday. 

Power Outages Rainfall Extreme flooding is occurring in New Orleans per the National Weather Service.  More than eight inches of rain have fallen today in west New Orleans. This is equivalent to a 50 year flood in some areas. 

Radar at 7:04pm shows a widening eye that has fallen apart. Wind gusts at the New Orleans Louis Armstrong Airport have reached 65 mph.  Unfortunately, power has gone out in a large area near and along the path of the storm.  This will be the last update as the storm is inland.  5pm -- official landfall 4pm radar As I feared, the storm has officially intensified to 100 mph (Cat 2) with gusts to 120 mph. As predicted below, the highest winds will be moving into New Orleans in about an hour.  The power outages are increasing rapidly. ---- 3:30p ---- 3:30p The highest winds are in the hatched "W" area. They will be arriving in downtown New Orleans or the French Quarter after 4:30pm. Please make sure you are in sturdy shelter.  2pm Update The highest winds are in the "donut" marked with the W . It is moving toward New Orleans.  First area of concentrated power outages in orange. There will be many more before the sun sets.  ---- We have our first tornado warning of the d

This brief essay , written by a then-student on Staten Island, is well done. God Bless everyone affected by that horrible event.

Hurricane Francine's warnings have become more extensive. The tropical storm warning has been extended into southwest Mississippi. At 8:25pm, the speed has increased to 77 mph and the pressure has dropped to 977 millibars. These values are still valid at 10:10pm. The maximum sustained winds at landfall are forecast to be 100 to 105 mph with stronger gusts.  Color codes (above): Red = hurricane warning. Pink = hurricane watch. Blue = tropical storm warning (winds of 40 to 73 mph) Yellow = tropical storm watch. Amber = current area of 40 to 75 mph winds.  Brown = hurricane force winds of 75 mph or stronger In addition to a tropical storm warning, there is a hurricane watch for Baton Rouge and the Greater New Orleans area. The tropical storm warning has been extended to the western Florida Panhandle.  Here are the forecast winds for the Baton Rouge and New Orleans areas.  There will be widespread tree damage and power outages. On the Lake, there is an outside chance of wind gusts to 9

The forecast has not changed much since yesterday. Red is a hurricane warning. Blue is a tropical storm warning. Yellow is a tropical storm watch. The wind speed is forecast to br 100 mph at landfall. 

8:40pm note: For those who have been following along with my forecasts, I have been telling people in Baton Rouge (especially) and New Orleans to make preparations for damaging winds. Based on the latest data, I believe the threat for those two cities has risen since earlier today.  4:10pm Update: Hurricane warnings have been posted for the Louisiana coast (red).  Winds at landfall are now forecast to be 100 mph, which is a significant change since this morning's forecast. There is also a high surge warning. The pink/blue is a hurricane watch/tropical storm warning. Yellow is a tropical storm watch. Damaging winds are likely in Baton Rouge and possible in New Orleans. In red, the storm surge is forecast to be up to 10 feet -- a life-threatening situation.  Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of the path of the eye of the hurricane.  Now is the time to prepare. Below is the time of arrival of the 40 mph or stronger winds.   Along the coast and in flood-prone areas: Assemble

4:10p This forecast has been updated. Hurricane warnings  have been issued for the Louisiana coast. The update is available here .  2:05pm. Francine is strengthening  significantly. As of 1pm, it is maximum sustained winds are 60 mph and the pressure has dropped to 996 mb. Here is the forecast rainfall.  10:10am: NHC has officially upgraded the system in the southwest Gulf to Tropical Storm Francine. A hurricane watch has been issued for the Louisiana Coast from Cameron to Grand Isle.  Then-Hurricane Francine is forecast to come ashore with 85 mph winds. The winds will affect Baton Rouge and, possibly, New Orleans. Please note the hurricane watch goes inland a ways to account for the potential for 75 mph or stronger winds away from the coast.  Pink = hurricane watch.  Yellow = tropical storm watch.  Amber = area of 40 to 50 mph winds at present. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph and the lowest pressure is 1002 millibars.  Published at 9:20am: The system in the southwest Gulf is much m

This forecast has been updated. Please go here for the latest forecast .  Here is the 10pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center.  Please note that a tropical storm watch has been issued for the far south Texas coast. Francine is forecast to be an 80 mph hurricane at landfall. However, there is a chance landfall could occur anywhere within te white zone.  I will have more information Monday morning.  ---- Published at 3:30pm Sunday... Based on Hurricane Hunter data we have winds as high as 55-60 mph over the southwest Gulf. However, the winds are not yet circular, so it isn't an official tropical storm as yet. There is little doubt that a tropical storm will develop and a hurricane is possible.   I would not change my forecast from yesterday.  If you live to the west (left) of the orange line, you have the potential for tropical storm, or even hurricane, conditions as the week progresses. I've been getting questions from readers in the Houston area. At this point, the od

This forecast has been updated . 2pm Update: The information from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates winds of 45-50 mph, or a little stronger, at the surface. These are tropical storm-level winds. The plane has not yet surveyed enough of the area to know whether winds are in a circular pattern that would indicate a tropical storm.  I will update when more information becomes available late this afternoon or early this evening.  --- original posting --- The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% chance of a tropical storm forming within the red area. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm and watches may be issued later today.  My original forecast, made yesterday, of a tropical storm still looks good. However, I believe the threat to the Mexican State of Tamaulipas is less than it appeared yesterday with the exception of strong winds and high surf along the immediate coast.  Here is a list of all of the models' potential tracks this morning. However, thi