Tropical Storm Forecast for Florida - 5:30pm Friday

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The weak weather system now over Cuba is forecast to become Tropical Storm Debby off the coast from Naples Saturday evening. It is then forecast to move across Tampa with 60 mph winds (with gusts to 75 mph) and then curve northeast reaching the Jacksonville area by sunrise Monday. Blue = tropical storm warning and yellow = tropical storm watch. 

Here is the storm surge forecast.

Beyond Monday morning, the forecast becomes much more uncertain. 
The models I trust the most have the system as a strong tropical storm from near Amelia Island to about Myrtle Beach. Then, they either move it inland or have it weaken near the South Carolina or North Carolina coasts. Vacationers to these areas should take the forecast for early next week into consideration. 

The NWS is forecasting as much at 7" of rain (amber)in the coastal Carolinas (the yellow, 10" area, if off the coast. 
I am forecasting a chance of tornadoes just about anywhere over the Florida Peninsula until the storm passes Jacksonville. 

More on this storm this evening. 




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