Questions for Climate Science
A bright meteorology student, Chris Martz ( @ChrisMartzWx) asked some important questions of Big Climate last week. With his permission, I have reproduced them.
➊ To the nearest hundredth of a degree Celsius, what is the “correct” global mean surface temperature (GMST), and why? ➋ If your answer to question one is “the pre-industrial climate,” then explain to me why a 1.2°C cooler planet would be ideal for life on Earth in terms of agricultural and economic productivity. Explain to me why climate conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) would be less dangerous and more preferable? ➌ What is the “correct” amount of extreme weather? How many tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes; tornadoes; single-cell, multi-cell cluster, multi-cell line and supercell thunderstorms; damaging wind and hailstorms; droughts; coastal, pluvial and flash floods; heatwaves and cold waves; snowstorms, ice storms and blizzards; and wildfires should there be per year globally? Assign exact numbers then explain to me why. ➍ What is the “correct” level of atmospheric carbon dioxide supposed to be? What dry-air volume or even range of concentrations would minimize bad weather and optimize plant growth? Most alarmists tell me that the pre-industrial level of 180-280 ppm is ideal. But, why? Show me the data that can physically establish a mathematical relationship between carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and the amount of tornadic or hurricane activity in a year, for starters, then explain why 180-280 ppm is more ideal for plants than 800-1,200 ppm. ➎ Climate scientists say that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which President Biden signed into law last year, was the “biggest piece of climate legislation in history.” But, since it was signed into law, the climate alarmists say that climate change has only become a lot worse. Why? ➏ To follow-up to question five, when will the IRA be effective? At 6:24 p.m. today? Noon tomorrow? Next week? 5-years from now? When will it give us the ideal climate? What does that look like? How do we know, and by what measure(s)? ➐ If the U.S. spends $50-78 trillion to decarbonize our economy by 2050, how much will that reduce GMST by 2100, if we assume climate model projections are an accurate representation of reality? Provide your answer to the nearest hundredth of a degree Celsius and show me your math. ➑ If you don't know the answer to question eight, here is a follow-up. If you don't know how much GMST will be reduced by 2100 if we go to “net zero” emissions by 2050, are we supposed to spend $50-78 trillion and just see what happens? That would cost each of you between $150,000 and $235,000 to achieve. ➒ China and India emit more carbon dioxide into the air than any other country. Why is their feet never held to the fire to reduce emissions? Why does the responsibility only fall on western countries, and all of a sudden the topic goes from total emissions to the per capita metric? ➊⓿ Why do efforts to mitigate negative impacts of man-made climate change focus almost exclusively on reducing emissions, as opposed to more effective (especially in the near-term) measures, such as better zoning codes in flood plains; investing in weather-resilient infrastructure along our coastlines and in hail and tornado alley; better city planning to reduce flash flooding damage; or placing power lines underground and improving forest management to reduce fire risk? I'm still waiting for climate alarmists to answer these very basic questions in a clear and concise manner.
Chris, you may have to wait until you retire to get those answers. I have (in person to well-qualified climate scientists and on this blog) -- numerous times -- "What is the ideal mean temperature of earth that will allow humanity to be flourish?" They refuse to answer!
The ideal mean temperature of Earth that would allow humanity to flourish is generally considered to be around 14°C to 15°C (57°F to 59°F).
ReplyDeleteThis temperature range is derived from historical averages during periods when human civilization has thrived.
It's worth noting that maintaining a stable climate within this range helps ensure the stability of ecosystems, agriculture, and water supplies, which are critical for human societies.
However, other factors such as regional climate conditions, technological advances, and socio-economic factors also play significant roles in determining the overall well-being of humanity.
Thank you for the above comment. Do you have a study to which you could refer us?
DeleteFor readers, the current temperature of earth is ~59.5° F. It has shot up significantly the past two years due to the Tonga Volcano. It will come down with the next La Nina and after a few more years when the water vapor injected into the atmosphere works its way out (we hope).
Sources and key points that contribute to this understanding:
Delete1. **Historical Climate Data**: The Holocene epoch, which started around 11,700 years ago, has had relatively stable climate conditions and is the period when human civilization developed significantly. During this epoch, the average global temperature has been in the range you mentioned.
2. **IPCC Reports**: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides comprehensive reports on climate science. Their assessments highlight the importance of maintaining stable global temperatures to ensure the stability of ecosystems and human societies.
3. **Scientific Studies**: Research published in journals such as Nature, Science, and others discuss the relationship between historical climate conditions and the development of human societies. These studies often reference the stability of temperatures in the mid-20th century as being conducive to agriculture, water supply, and overall human well-being.
For a more detailed understanding, refer to sources like the IPCC Assessment Reports and scientific literature on historical climate patterns and their impact on human civilization.
For example, two scientific studies that discuss the relationship between historical climate conditions and human civilization:
1. **"Holocene Climate Variability"** by Wanner et al. (2008):
- This study reviews climate variability during the Holocene and its impacts on human societies. It provides insights into how stable temperatures during this period supported the development of agriculture and human civilizations.
- Reference: Wanner, H., et al. "Mid- to Late Holocene climate change: an overview." Quaternary Science Reviews 27.19-20 (2008): 1791-1828.
2. **"The climate of the Holocene: past and future perspectives"** by Ruddiman (2003):
- This paper discusses the climatic conditions during the Holocene epoch and their significance for human development. It emphasizes how stable and moderate temperatures have been crucial for agriculture and societal growth.
- Reference: Ruddiman, W. F. "The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago." Climatic Change 61.3 (2003): 261-293.
Thank you for the references.
DeleteIf, as many climate scientists claim, there was no Roman Optimium or Medieval Warm Period, the only time it has been in the 57-59°F range is very recently. If so, that wouldn't preclude even warmer weather could be in the optimum range. Comment? Thank you.
Points to consider in the context of the optimum temperature range for human flourishing:
Delete1. **Regional vs. Global Temperature Changes**:
- The Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period are often considered regional phenomena, with warmer conditions recorded in parts of Europe and the North Atlantic. These periods do not necessarily reflect global temperature changes.
2. **Recent Temperature Increases**:
- Recent global temperature increases, particularly in the 20th and 21st centuries, are well-documented and widely accepted as unprecedented in the context of the last several thousand years. This warming has been attributed to anthropogenic factors, primarily greenhouse gas emissions.
3. **Optimal Temperature Range**:
- The 14°C to 15°C (57°F to 59°F) range is derived from historical averages that have been conducive to the development and stability of human societies, particularly during the Holocene. It is based on periods when climate conditions were relatively stable, supporting agriculture, water supplies, and ecosystems.
4. **Potential for Warmer Optimal Conditions**:
- While it is possible that slightly warmer conditions could still support human societies, the rapid rate of current warming poses significant challenges. These include more extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and disruptions to ecosystems and agriculture, which could offset any potential benefits of a warmer climate.
5. **Complex Interactions**:
- The overall well-being of humanity is influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including regional climate conditions, technological advances, socio-economic factors, and adaptive capacities. While a warmer climate might offer some benefits in certain regions, the broader impacts of global warming are generally considered detrimental to the stability and sustainability of human societies.
In sum, while the historical temperature range of 14°C to 15°C has been conducive to human flourishing, the warming observed today introduces a range of challenges that complicate the potential benefits of a warmer climate. The key concern is not just the temperature itself but the rate of change and its broader impacts on global systems.