2024 Hurricane Season, So Far

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At this point, the 2024 hurricane season is nothing special, 
even with Hurricane Ernesto in progress. 

This is quite a contrast to the 2024 hurricane season forecasts. A small sample is below. 
Many were mentioning climate change as a reason for the much above normal hurricane season we were forecast to have.

What's Next??

Looking ahead to the end of hurricane season, Dr. Sam Lillo created a graph of hurricane statistics brought to my attention yesterday by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. 

August 15 is the vertical line at right and the star? As Roger explains it, 
The figure above shows that historically, the median number of storms to occur after August 15th is about 12, the 90th percentile is about 17 storms, with the most being 22. If seasonal forecasts are going to verify, then the Atlantic needs to get busy — which is of course still very possible...

According to the National Hurricane Center, other than Ernesto, no storm is forecast to occur in the Atlantic in the next seven days. That would bring us to August 23. The 50th percentile at that point is 13 named storms.

As far at the Northern Hemisphere is concerned, it might be a historically low season since we've had worldwide satellite coverage in the late 70's. 
The ACE Index, frequently referred to on this blog, is a metric that combines hurricane duration and intensity. The light blue line shows that the Hemisphere's index is far below average (purple). Right now, no hurricanes or tropical storms are occurring in the Eastern Pacific and none are forecast for at least the next three days. 

I wish to emphasize the statistical center of the hurricane season is September 15. I expect several bad hurricanes are yet to occur. 

Via Dr. Ryan Maue, an expert in tropical meteorology, here is a good summary as to the currently understand relationship between climate change and hurricanes. 
I certainly agree with the third bullet and the other two bullets are reasonable. 

However, the vastly oversimplified "hotter than normal water" = a "super-charged hurricane season" mentioned in many of these news stories is just wrong. While water temperature is one ingredient, African air pollution, the placement of the Bermuda High, and many other factors determine whether a hurricane forms and whether it will be a worse than normal season. 

So, keep your eye out and your preparedness up. But, the forecasts of 27 or more storms seem less likely by the day. 

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