Validation of July 1 Tornado Mini-Forecast
Whenever possible, I like to narrow down tornado danger areas. I issued one of my mini-forecasts Monday afternoon on Twitter/X. See below. At 4:29pm I forecast tornadoes within the blue outline from 5 until 6:30pm.
What actually happened?The red dots are the locations of tornadoes. The first was at 5:51pm and within the forecast area. All of the rest of the tornadoes were in the mini-forecast except for the easternmost which was just past the forecast. However, the more eastern two tornadoes occurred after 6:30. I have a tendency to end these forecasts too soon, so it is something I need to keep in mind.
How would I grade this forecast? B.
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