Validating the Independent Beryl Forecast

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As you know, when we make an independent forecast during a major storm, we validate and grade it. Here is the forecast we made during during Beryl which departed significantly form the National Hurricane Center's (NHC).

This was their 10am forecast made on the 3rd. 
By that time the models and a couple of "pattern recognition" rules of thumb indicated there was an increasing risk the storm center could move ashore anywhere in Texas. 

This is our Beryl forecast from 10:30am. The green arrow indicates the location of landfall,

In addition to alerting the actual area of landfall, we lowered the risk for a small area of northeast  Mexico. I will give this forecast an A-. The "minus" is because I didn't move the southern edge far enough north. 

I felt it was too soon to provide an educated guess at to wind speeds. Subsequent forecasts centered around 90 mph. We do not yet have the official analysis from NHC, so I will give this a preliminary grade of B+ as some were calling for much lower speeds and some forecast all the way to Cat 4 wind speeds. 

While most of the time the NWS and NHC provide quality forecast, this blog is independent of those two organizations and provides independent forecasts when I believe it is necessary. I appreciate your readership.

Comments

  1. AnonymousJuly 11, 2024 at 1:07 PM

    and we appreciate your efforts and insights, even for areas of the country far from us

    ReplyDelete

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