Another Unwarned Tornado -- Rome, New York

"This is the Worst [ever] Event to Hit the City of Rome"

                  -- Governor Kathy Hochul

Tornado damage in Rome, NY. Photographer unknown, via Twitter and NWS.

An EF-2 intensity tornado struck Rome, NY yesterday afternoon without an advance warning from the National Weather Service. Based on my analysis, a warning should have been issued before it touched down in the city at 3:25pm EDT. Unfortunately, the warning was issued -- at best -- at 3:25 (zero lead-time) and may have been as late as 3:28pm (negative three minutes lead-time). The National Weather Service's (NWS) published lead-time goal is 13 minutes. 

In addition, a severe thunderstorm watch -- as opposed to a tornado watch -- was in effect.  At least four tornadoes actually occurred.

As I have expressed on numerous occasions: if that NWS believes multiple tornadoes are going to occur, they should issue a tornado watch. A severe thunderstorm watch does not get the attention received by a tornado watch, plus some television display systems don't even mention tornadoes forecast in one of these severe thunderstorm watches!

Inadequate Warning

Let's examine why the warning was late in this case. Below is the radar data from 3:17pm. At left is reflectivity data, which is the type of radar seen on television. 

At right is the Doppler wind data, which depicts rotation in the storm. Earlier images (not shown) indicate developing rotation. By 3:17, I would have issued a tornado warning had I been on the warning desk at WeatherData, Inc. A second radar (not shown) depicts a "hole" in the reflectivity data which indicates a possible vortex spinning out raindrops.  

At 3:21pm, the "S" shape in the reflectivity data is a mild indicator of a tornado. More importantly, the Doppler wind data is showing strong rotation -- more than enough for a tornado warning. 

At this point, with no tornado watch and no tornado warning, people don't know a tornado is seconds from starting. 

At 3:24pm, at left, the "S" shape continues (bottom is off the image) while the Doppler wind data (right) shows a significant tornado signature. 

After this image, the tornado warning is issued. The printed text says it was originated at 3:25pm.

However, given that it takes time for warnings to be distributed, the time of 3:28pm as the warning time may be more realistic (see below).

The next radar image, 3:27pm, shows lofted debris over Rome. 

The left image shows lofted debris in the blue and green. The rotation image (right) still shows considerable rotation. 

So, we have another inadequately warned tornado from the National Weather Service. There were several tornadoes in Upstate NY yesterday and one person was killed. 

It is likely that this type of tornado would have experienced advance warning a dozen years ago. The deterioration of National Weather Service tornado warnings, unfortunately, continues. 

In aviation, this type of failure would put the NTSB on the case so as to prevent these from occurring in the future. The United States desperately needs a National Disaster Review Board to assist the National Weather Service in fixing its tornado warning program.