Two Areas of Potential Flooding This Week

There is a poorly defined area of low pressure center near Yucatan that is

finally showing signs of becoming better organized. It is below as of 1:15pm.

The best indications at this point are that the low will drift northwest and become better organized over the next 3-4 days. There is a 70% chance it will at lease become a tropical depression. It might become Tropical Storm Alberto but that is unclear at this point. What does seem clear is that the western Gulf Coast will be drenched. 

The low pressure center's location above is the forecast from the ECMWF model for 6am Wednesday. The rain represents where heavy rain is forecast to occur (it does not show light rain in this particular presentation). 

Below is the 7-day rainfall amount forecast. 

The amber area along the Texas Gulf Coast is where 7-10 inches of rain are forecast to fall.

Over the north central states, multiple waves of low pressure are forecast to move over the region during the next seven days. The overall weather system is forecast to be more or less stationary over the area.

During the past three days (ending at 1pm), part of the Upper Midwest has received heavy rain.

Additional heavy rains may cause flooding given the saturated soil. 

The NWS has issued an outline of the area where flooding may occur the next seven days. 

The hatching is where potential flooding may occur. for now, please ignore the orange dots. 

Of course, I will update this developing situation.