Today's Tornado, Damaging Wind, and Flood Forecasts [9:40pm Update]

9:40pm 

I wholeheartedly believe there will be a couple of tornadoes or more during the night (see my original forecast, scroll down) in addition to tennis ball-sized hail and wind gusts to 75 mph. 

Please make sure you have a system to awaken you during the night!!

7:55pm

Severe thunderstorm watch, including Chicago, for "one or two tornadoes," very large hail and wind gusts to 75 mph. 

First tornado warning of the day has been issued. 

Follow along @usweatherexpert on Twitter. 

Tornadoes along with 4" hail and wind gusts to 70 mph are forecast to occur. 

The first thunderstorms of the day are forming in Minnesota, 5:48pm. 

--- original posting, still valid ---

Tornado Forecast

I'm afraid there is a significant tornado risk in the area I have outlined. 

If you live in southern Minnesota as well as adjacent areas of Wisconsin and far northern Iowa. There is a warm front that bisects my forecast area. There are also statistical models that support tornadoes in this area. 

Damaging Wind Forecast

Addition at 11:45am:  The NWS Storm Prediction Center is now forecasting a squall line that will move rapidly southeast and cause damaging winds. In the hatched area, winds may exceed 75 mph. 

The red area has an enhanced risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger and the yellow area has a significant risk. Tree damage and power outages are possible. 

Flood Forecast

Addition, regarding the flooding in the Midwest:

There is major flooding in the purple area. The worse flooding is in the hatched deep blue area and it is forecast to continue until the end of this week, at least. The flood waters will flow into the Missouri and Mississippi River above the confluence with the Ohio River.