Today and Holiday Weekend Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

By -
I am most concerned about today and -- especially -- Saturday and Sunday.

Late This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area. The more likely times is 3 to 10pm.

There is an enhanced risk wind gusts of 60 mph in the red area and a significant risk in the yellow area. Where you see hatching, gusts may be 75 mph or stronger. The stronger winds are likely after sunset.


Friday and Friday Night

No widespread tornadoes or damaging winds are forecast. If that changes, I will update the forecast tomorrow. 

Saturday and Saturday Night
There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes, damaging winds (70 mph or stronger) and giant hail in the red, hatched area. It will be important to monitor the weather in this area.

The yellow area has a significant risk of damaging winds and, possibly, hail. 

I'm watching this situation closely. 

Sunday and Sunday Night

The orange area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail with a significant risk in the yellow area. Given the large number of recreational lakes in this region, it will be especially important to monitor the weather throughout the day. 

Monday and Monday Night
After looking at the models, especially the ECMWF, I believe the area enclosed by the yellow line has a significant chance of thunderstorms with high winds and, perhaps, some hail on Memorial Day. However, this is a preliminary forecast as four days is relatively distant in time for this type of forecast.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more