The Most Violent Tornadoes Are LESS Common In Earth's Warmer Climate

By -
The usual suspects have tried to tie the recent onslaught of tornadoes to global warming. It is bad science for the reasons explained below.

The Weather Science
Let's begin with some basic meteorology: strong (F-2 and -3) and violent (F-4 and -5) tornadoes are caused by the contrast in temperatures between the poles and the tropics. Bad tornadoes need an active jet stream to ventilate the top of severe thunderstorms. You can see the correlation pertaining to Saturday's tornadoes below. The strong jet stream is in the same general area as the tornadoes that killed 22 people.
Tornadoes from 1pm Saturday to 7am Sunday

Jet stream winds (250mb chart) up to 150 mph (scale is in knots) in the general 
vicinity of Saturday's tornadoes

The global warming hypothesis -- which has proven to be correct -- is that the poles would warm much more quickly than the tropics. That means there is, on average, less temperature contrast between air masses and a less powerful jet stream. Thus, fewer violent tornadoes, especially F-5's. In fact, the last F-5 tornado was May 20, 2013 -- our current streak of 11+ years without an F-5 is, by far, the longest streak without an F-5 in recorded history.


The NOAA Data
Below, in graph form, is NOAA's official data regarding the yearly numbers of F-4 and F-5 tornadoes. The trend is unquestionably down.

Peer-Reviewed Paper Demonstrates Lessening Trend in Violent Tornadoes
This peer-reviewed paper clearly demonstrates that the trend in violent tornadoes is down. A link to the paper is here. 


Lessing Trend in Damage From All Tornadoes
The information from this peer-reviewed paper shows normalized data (inflation, population, etc.) clearly demonstrates the trend in damage from all tornadoes, regardless of intensity, is down. As we know the vast majority of damage is caused by the most powerful tornadoes, this confirms the trend in violent tornadoes is down. You can learn more about the lessening trend in tornado damage, here. 

The evidence is overwhelming -- global warming is not making violent tornadoes worse. 

Comments

  1. AnonymousMay 29, 2024 at 6:57 AM

    Believe the last EF5 was in 2013, not 2023

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousMay 29, 2024 at 9:13 AM

    Assuming the downward trend has occurred, why has it occurred?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mike SmithMay 29, 2024 at 9:19 AM

      I'm not aware of anyone who keeps track of downburst statistics, so I can't answer the question.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMay 29, 2024 at 12:58 PM

      Odd, as didn't ask about downburst statistics, instead asked about why the offered downward trend in violent tornadoes

      Delete
  3. Mike SmithMay 29, 2024 at 2:14 PM

    As I explained the downward trend in tornadoes in the two "Weather Science" paragraphs, I assumed you made a typo.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more