New Severe Thunderstorm Watch - 9:50pm Update

An extreme wind event is forecast for the central Great Plains.

Thank you to all of the new readers this afternoon! 

Please bookmark: www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com

We provide unique coverage of tornadoes, derechos and other types

of extreme wether. 

9:50pm Update

7:45pm Update

Also, damaging winds are approaching Wichita at this time. 

6:40pm Update

Note that 85 mph winds along with tornadoes are forecast to occur. 

6pm Update

We just had a measured wind gust of 90 mph winds just east of Meade, Kansas. This line of storms is accelerating to the east. 

And, just had 100 mph winds at the Salina, Kansas, airport!!

5:30pm Update

Below is a rough idea of what the radar should look like around 8pm. This is not exact. Damaging winds likely, very large hail possible and tornadoes -- especially south of U.S. 50 in Kansas and northern Oklahoma -- possible.

This is consistent with my forecast (below). 

4:50pm Update

The strong storm west of Salina along I-70 has produced multiple tornadoes and a tornado warning is in effect. It has also produced 3+" hail and clocked 82 mph winds. 

The cluster of thunderstorms in southwest Kansas has produced at least one tornado and wind gusts to 70 mph. 

These two storm areas will begin to join up by around 6pm and the probability of damaging winds will increase to dangerous levels. Multiple computer models + raw data indicate peak wind gusts of 90 mph are quite possible. These winds, where they occur, will cause widespread power outages and tree damage. 

There is also an area that appears to be more conducive to tornadic thunderstorms over south central Kansas and parts of northwest Oklahoma. See below. So, it is essential to continue to monitor the weather throughout Kansas and northern Oklahoma through the evening. 

2:35pm - Particularly Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch

This is the rarest type of watch! In addition to tornadoes, wind gusts to 90mph are forecast to occur along with giant hail (3" hail just reported at Ellis, KS) to softball size. A tornado has occurred west of Hays. 

This a time to call your friends and relatives -- particularly those with limited mobility -- to make sure they are aware of the threat and are making preparations. Again, it has been at least 11 years since we've had a situation like this in Kansas. You will find safety recommendations below. 

This is a genuinely dangerous situation!

Wind Forecast

• There is a high risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger in the purple area.
• There is an enhanced risk of 75 mph winds or stronger in the red area.
• The yellow, hatched area has a significant risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. 
• The unhatched yellow area has a significant risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger. 

Below is a wider view of the wind forecast.

Times of Arrival

Tornado Forecast

I have modified the tornado forecast. The brown area, which is the "significant" risk area is unchanged. In the brown area, the tornadoes will likely be embedded with the thunderstorms and nearly impossible to see. 

I have added a yellow enhanced area of tornado risk in south central Kansas and adjacent areas of Oklahoma. There will be two "tail-end Charlie" opportunities in this area where more classic tornadoes may develop.

Hail Forecast

The hail risk has been upgraded. There is a high risk (purple) of hail 2" in diameter or larger. 
The yellow area has a significant risk of hail 1" or larger. The red area has an enhanced risk. The hatching indicates a risk of hail 2" or larger. 

Safety Recommendations

It has been since at least 2013 that Kansas has experienced a wind event like the one forecast for late this afternoon and tonight. Power outages are likely. Toppled trees are also likely if this forecast is correct.

I recommend the following:

• Purchase any necessary items (prescription refills, etc.) by 3pm. 
• Make provisions for infirm friends or relatives by that same time. 
• Get extra cash from the ATM.
• Fill your car with fuel. Fill your generator with fuel. 
• Put away patio furniture, grills, trampolines and other items that may blow about. 
• Put your car in the garage. 
• Make sure your tornado shelter is ready to go (two bottles of water, diapers, shoes). 
• Fully charge your computer and phones but take them off the charger when you see lightning or hear the first clap of thunder. 

Please follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert for updates this afternoon and evening. Twitter coverage has begun. 

And, if you are trying to decide what to give a graduate or to Dad, please consider my book.