Catching Up After the Tornado Siege of 2024

By -
Thirty-two days of above normal numbers of tornadoes. While we have to wait for final numbers, this appears to be the worst period of tornadoes since the infamous year of 2011. Meteorologists east of the Rockies are exhausted, at least I certainly am. 

That is not to say there won't be more tornadoes this year -- there certainly will be. But, I'm hoping we won't go through another period where the tornadoes are as continuous as the period just passed.

Tornado Warnings

The storm death toll in 2024, for the number of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (our first lightning death in the U.S. didn't occur until Friday), appears to have been mitigated by what were quality warnings (with a few exceptions). 
This Dallas Morning News story is about Texas men getting a call from Oklahoma telling him they had ten minutes before the tornado struck. The men then warned other people, saving lives. 

There are several points to consider here:
  • Generally, people can get to safety with only seconds or a very few minutes of warning. 
  • There is a trade-off between accuracy and lead-time (the interval between the issuance of the warning and the arrival of the storm). Smaller, shorter-period lead time tornado warnings are going to be the most useful, especially since the false alarm rate would go down (credibility would go up).
  • Congress and others pressing for 60-minute lead-time tornado warnings are misguided. With too much lead-time, people will be tempted to drive across town to get their children (rather than having their children shelter at their friend's house) or will try to drive property out of harm's way causing giant traffic jams (as we have seen in Oklahoma). Both increase danger and are counterproductive to the goal of the warnings, which is to save lives. 

 Airliner Turbulence

The desire by the MSM to make everything in the world about global warming -- regardless of the science -- seems to be infinite. This is unquestionably true regarding turbulence affecting airliners. Last week, I wrote about the Singapore Airlines fatal turbulence encounter. I wouldn't change a word of what I wrote.

Dr. Cliff Mass, professor of meteorology for the University of Washington, has a more detailed piece here and comes to the same conclusion. The Singapore encounter and aircraft turbulence in general have nothing to do with global warming. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more