Now we are one day from meteorological summer, we will be bombarded by climate activists trying to tie global warming into every heat wave. Earlier today I wrote about how the Tonga Volcano is causing -- natural -- heat waves even years after the eruption.  Below is a map showing the year that each state's record high temperatures were set for the month of May.  Note how relatively few of them occurred post-2000. Some were set more than 100 years ago. So, when the MSM attempts to tie global warming to hot temperatures, please keep this map in mind. Humans affect the weather -- no question -- but it is not the primary mechanism.  One other item:

June 1 is the traditional first day of hurricane season. I'm happy to report there is nothing in the way of tropical storm activity in the tropics at this time.  We provide tropical storm and hurricane forecasts on the blog but we do not  do the "there may be something off the coast of Africa that could be a problem in ten days" thing done by The Weather Channel and others.  By the way, the Here it Comes  was issued eight days ago and -- surprise  -- nothing happened.  Generally speaking, we begin coverage about five days out. Our forecasts will, at times, vary from others. In some cases, such as Hurricane Ian, our forecasts can be significantly different.  Let's hope that the forecasts of active 2024 hurricane season are incorrect. 

Weather satellite image of Tonga eruption. This is an important finding.  The recent extreme heat, per computer simulation, is due to the injection of water vapor (a powerful greenhouse gas) from the Tonga Volcano. It is not due to manmade carbon dioxide.   The article was published in Journal of Climate .  Here is the abstract: You'll recall there was a great deal of speculation that summer 2023's hot temperatures, especially in the Southwest, were due to manmade global warming. Based on this study, that was not the case. The big issue is that the computer model indicates that the effect of the eruption will be around for years. 

With the 2024 winter wheat harvest underway, here are rainfall maps to 10am Thursday. 24-Hour Rainfall 72-Hour Rainfall Wheat Belt Rainfall at 10:40am CDT See article below for a 5-day rainfall amount forecast. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today.  From now until 7am CDT Tuesday, June 4, the Southwest will be dry (and hot) with consider rain in the Great  Plains, Midwest and South. 

The usual suspects have tried to tie the recent onslaught of tornadoes to global warming. It is bad science for the reasons explained below. The Weather Science Let's begin with some basic meteorology: strong (F-2 and -3) and violent (F-4 and -5) tornadoes are caused by the contrast  in temperatures between the poles and the tropics. Bad tornadoes need an active jet stream to ventilate the top of severe thunderstorms. You can see the correlation pertaining to Saturday's tornadoes below. The strong jet stream is in the same general area as the tornadoes that killed 22 people. Tornadoes from 1pm Saturday to 7am Sunday Jet stream winds (250mb chart) up to 150 mph (scale is in knots) in the general  vicinity of Saturday's tornadoes The global warming hypothesis -- which has proven to be correct -- is that the poles would warm much more quickly than the tropics. That means there is, on average, less  temperature contrast between air masses and a less powerful jet stream. Thus,...

Even I can only write about tornadoes so much, so here is a sports diversion. It became official yesterday. Angel Hernandez, the worst umpire in modern baseball history, has -- at long last -- been ejected. Not only did he constantly make incorrect calls, he loved to eject players and managers who (correctly) complained. He even threw out the guy who led the fans in Take Me Out to the Ballgame! I wanted to "honor" him with some lowlights of his illustrious career. 

The map is of "customers." A customer is one home or one business. This means about 2.5 million people  are without power at this time.  The same line of thunderstorms that caused so much damage in Dallas around sunrise is approaching from the north.  Wind gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. For more on the Texas tornado and damaging wind threat, go here . Bush Intercontinental has clocked a gust of 75 mph.  12:47pm: A severe thunderstorm watch, with tornadoes possible, has been issued for Louisiana. 

I take your feedback seriously so I've had Monumetric eliminate the video player. While that costs me some advertising revenue, it was becoming far too distracting. Thank you for your patience. 

1:55pm Update: Tornado Watch  is in effect for west Texas.  --- original posting --  I can't tell you how much I was hoping not to have to forecast a tornado forecast today but Mother Nature had other ideas. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Forecast for Louisiana Tornado Risk The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes; most likely 4pm or after. Damaging Wind Risk Updated 3:10pm. The hatching means 75 mph wind gusts are forecast. Red is an enhanced  risk and yellow is a significant risk.

Thirty-two days of above normal numbers of tornadoes. While we have to wait for final numbers, this appears to be the worst period of tornadoes since the infamous year of 2011. Meteorologists east of the Rockies are exhausted, at least I certainly am.  That is not to say there won't be more tornadoes this year -- there certainly will be. But, I'm hoping we won't go through another period where the tornadoes are as continuous as the period just passed. Tornado Warnings The storm death toll in 2024, for the number of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (our first lightning death in the U.S. didn't occur until Friday), appears to have been mitigated by what were quality warnings (with a few exceptions).  This Dallas Morning News  story is about Texas men getting a call from Oklahoma telling him they had ten minutes before the tornado struck. The men then warned other people, saving lives.  There are several points to consider here: Generally, people can get to safety wit...

Without comment... I believe there is much more than a little truth in this cartoon.

With the exception of a severe thunderstorm watch in far south Texas, all tornado and severe thunderstorm watches have expired. 

You can read what happened and my strong response.   Fact: hail is not life-threatening. On average, the U.S. loses one person per decade  due to hail. This is exactly how you (inadvertently) train the population to ignore weather warnings! See, Joplin !

This piece is intended for my meteorologist colleagues.  I've had the opportunity to watch tornado coverage from three television markets in the past two weeks. Television meteorologists work their hearts and bodies out trying to keep everyone safe -- often working 15+ hour days.  To help keep the coverage as clear as possible, I'd like to offer some suggestions to my colleagues.  "All Hazards Possible" A few years ago, instead of saying "tornadoes plus large hail plus damaging thunderstorm-generated winds," the NWS's Storm Prediction Center shortened it by writing, "All hazards possible." This has morphed into television weather coverage where a watch is issued and the meteorologist says to the audience, "All hazards are possible."  The problem is the audience doesn't know what the hazards are. I recommend not using that phrase with the public.  Side Lobes The circle is over the same spot of geography. On the right, the Doppler w...

Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 

Today is a day of joy of being with family and friends but it is also a day we remember those who have given the ultimate sacrifice for us.  I had planned a longer tribute but with all of the tornadoes (more expected today, forecast up shortly), it was just not possible.  P.S. While it is a holiday for many of us, please keep in mind America's utility workers. Since the storm in Houston two weeks ago, they have been on overtime restoring power. If they are in your neighborhood, take them some lemonade or some other treat. The map is from 8:20am CDT. P.S. You will find well-deserved criticism (below) regarding the original title of this post. I changed it and apologized. 

11:30pm  Tornado watch until 5am. 10:45pm  New Tornado Watch till 4am. 9:55pm, tornado watch for Tennessee. 7:05pm, Another tornado watch has been issued until 1am. Please make sure you have a way of getting tornado warnings during the night! 6:50pm,   This situation is currently transitioning -- a solid or near-solid line of thunderstorms which will cause damaging thunderstorm-generated winds while the supercells ahead of the line produces tornadoes. Multiple damaging tornadoes have occurred the past three hours and the danger will continue into the overnight hours.  You will find public shelter locations here .  This particularly dangerous tornado situation will continue until 11pm.  3:45pm A tornado watch has been issued just to the west. 4:04pm, a number of severe thunderstorms are in progress. Please monitor the situation closely! Amber = the two tornado watches currently in effect.