Winter Wheat Weather Outlook

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Finally, the NWS has recovered the past two weeks' rainfall amounts and they are depicted for the winter wheat belt below. This rain will be, in part, provided by severe thunderstorms with the potential for tornadoes. Please scroll down.
The dry weather from central Kansas to northeast New Mexico, along with adjacent areas, has caused some deterioration of the crop, especially in southwest Kansas. 

Here is the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast rainfall amounts for the next seven days. 
Please note the area where 5" is forecast in central Missouri. As this area has been fairly dry, I don't think there is much chance of major flooding. However, the area of 4" rains in eastern Oklahoma into the Arkansas Ozarks has received above average rainfall, so people in flood-prone areas should keep an eye on the weather starting Thursday night. 

The rain will be a huge boost to the wheat crop but, unfortunately, it does not include much rain for the area of the High Plains where the crop deterioration is worst. 

Looking farther ahead, the NWS eight to fourteen day outlook has more than average rainfall over 
most of the winter wheat belt. However, if temperatures are much above normal as implied, the evaporation rate will be greater than normal, as well. 

While others have been posting longer range outlooks today, I do not post forecasts beyond two weeks because they have little or no skill. Even the 8-14 day forecasts are kind of dicey. Still, this information should be about the best there is for making agricultural decisions. 

Risk of Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms

Later this week, we will see a significant ramp-up of the risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. 
The maps above are the combined risk of tornadoes, large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. The areas outlined in black is where there is a chance of strong tornadoes, hail ≥ 2" and/or thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. 

If you live in these areas, please make sure your storm shelter and storm preparations are ready to go. 

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