Updated Eclipse Forecast

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Let's begin with the cloud forecast:
Everyone needs to know that you must to be in the path of totality if you wish to see the eclipse. There is a huge difference between totality and even 99%. 
The forecasts above and below are the cloud cover forecasts from the ECMWF model, the best meteorological model in the world. The numbers are the percentage of cloud cover at that location at 1pm CDT. At this time range, the model only outputs at 3-hr intervals so this is the closest we can get.

Severe Thunderstorms 
Below is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's forecast for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, updated since yesterday, that is in effect for Monday. If you are away from home and need a public shelter, please go here. 

I have attempted to see two total solar eclipses -- and it was overcast in both places (I had made a correct forecast for a location for viewing the 2017 eclipse but a last-minute family obligation came up which required me to 200+ miles from my ideal spot). 

In both cases, the traffic was unbelievable. In 2017, hours before, cars were illegally parked all over I-29 along the path of totality. We went to a small town in northeast Kansas. Here's the important point: it took us three hours to get away from the traffic gridlock to free-flowing traffic, So, I want to caution there is a risk of experiencing hail and/or other aspects of severe thunderstorms in the yellow area. 

Finally, if you have been planning to drive to this area from a great distance so that an overnight stay is desired, you will want to make sure you have a confirmed reservation with a confirmation number. The hotels are usually full along and near the path of the eclipse. 

Good luck!!

Comments

  1. AnonymousApril 4, 2024 at 2:14 PM

    Thank you for this context, very helpful

    ReplyDelete

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